| Abstract: | Forecast methods of intensity and hail-process type as well as mesoregion of hailfall, developed on the basis of complex studies of formation conditions and the features of intensive convective process development are given in this paper. The materials of special experimental observations and measurements obtained on scientific research polygons of High-Mountain Geophysical Institute (VGI) are used. To choose more informative predictors, the models of moist and potential instability were used. For the development of forecast methods the complex approach, based on the quantitative account of the factors of large-scale circulation, its interaction with relief, energetic characteristics of different layers of the troposphere, surface lines of potential instability and so on, are used. All methods are operatively tested, showed good results and were used in practice. |
