夏季淮河流域大气环流型在降水趋势预测中的应用

采用NCEP/NCAR逐日海平面气压场资料,利用Lamb-Jenkinson大气环流分型方法对淮河流域夏季环流进行分型,并利用逐步回归方法建立了淮河流域夏季降水趋势的预测模型。结果表明:影响夏季淮河流域的主要环流型有南风型、西南风型、东南风型及气旋性环流,这些环流型都具有显著的年际和年代际变化特征,利用大气环流型建立的夏季淮河流域降水趋势预测模型具有一定的预报能力。

Application of summer atmospheric circulation types over Huaihe River valley in precipitation trend forecast

Based on the NCEP/NCAR daily sea level pressure data,the Lamb-Jenkinson atmospheric circulation type method is used to define summer atmospheric circulation types over the Huaihe River valley,and a summer precipitation trend forecast model is established by the successive regression method.Results show that the main circulation types impacting on the summer climate over the Huaihe River valley are the southerly,southwesterly,southeasterly and cyclone types,and they have obvious interannual and interdecadal characteristics.The summer precipitation trend forecast model established by the circulation types over the Huaihe River valley has a good forecast skill.