利用多元回归方法制作景德镇市洪峰水位预报

对1996年、1998年、1999年景德镇地区的降水、洪水情况进行了分析,在雨量和水位的对应关系中选出37个样本,并应用多元回归方法分别建立了12个水位预报方程。从这些方程的预报与拟合效果可以看到,所建立的12个预报方程拟合效果都较理想,拟合结果与实况的相关系数均为0.95以上。应用2006年、2007年2次降水过程中景德镇市中尺度雨量站降水资料和水位资料,对预报方程进行了效果检验,误差基本在0.5 m以内。

Using Multiple Regression Method to Forecast Water Level of Flood Peak in Jingdezhen City

The 1996,1998 and 1999 Jingdezhen data of rainfall and disaster are analyzed.Thirty-seven samples with the relation between rainfall and disaster are selected and used to establish 12 water level forecasting equations respectively by multiple regression method.It is indicated by the forecasts and the fitting effects that all the 12 equations have good fitting effects and the correlation coefficient of reaches as high as above 0.95.Using the data of 2 precipitation processes of Jingdezhen city in the 2006 and 2007,the effects of the equations are tested and the errors are basically less than 0.5 m.