社区减灾能力的熵权-灰靶评价方法研究——以苏州新区为例

社区是城市细胞和基层单位，其防灾减灾能力建设对构建城市安全体系有着极其重要的作用。本文借助于熵权-灰靶模型和GIS叠置分析技术进行社区减灾能力综合评价方法研究，首先从灾害风险评估能力、救援与保障能力等6个方面构建起包含30个二级指标的社区减灾能力评价指标体系。经过指标序列的影响空间和标准模式的构建、灰靶变换和靶心度分级，进行社区减灾能力分级评价。以苏州新区作为案例分析研究区，借助于ArcMap10.2软件得到该区域的社区减灾能力空间分布特征图。分析结果表明，研究区社区减灾能力总体上呈现东区较好，西区较弱，区域内社区减灾能力建设不平衡特征。研究区各街道和社区的灾害风险评估能力和灾害管理能力较好，工程防御能力总体分布不均衡，经济基础支撑能力、救援与保障能力、公众认知能力较差，说明社区综合减灾能力不足，今后应从单纯依赖减灾示范社区建设转变为加强社区综合减灾能力的内涵建设。

Study on Entropy Weight and Grey Target Estimation Method of Community Disaster Reduction Capability:Take Suzhou New District as an Example

The community is the city cell and the basic unit , and its construction of disaster prevention and mitigation plays an extremely important role in the construction of urban security system .Comprehensive estimation method of community disaster reduction capability was studied based on entropy weight-grey target model and GIS overlay analysis technique .Evaluation index system , including about 30 two levels indicators ,was firstly built up from six aspects of disaster risk assessment ability , rescue and support capability, etc.After the construction of influence space , model standardization processing , grey target transform, and classification of approaching degree , the disaster reduction capacity was then grading assessed .Taking Suzhou new district as a case study area , the spatial distribution characteristics of community disaster reduction capability were obtained by using ArcMap 10.2 software.The results show that the overall ability of community disaster reduction in the east of study area is better than that in the west .The capacity of disaster risk assessment and disaster management of all streets and communities in the study area are acceptable .The overall defense capability of the project is unevenly distributed .The conclusion can be inferred that community comprehensive disaster reduction capability is insufficient from the poor economic support ability , rescue and support capability and public cognitive ability .The demonstration community construction of disaster reduction should be shifted to the connotation construction of community ' s comprehensive disaster reduction capability .