ZG市街头抢劫者作案地选择及其影响因素研究

以往关于作案地选择的研究,缺乏考虑不同属性群体间的空间差异。以中国ZG市为例,利用离散空间选择模型,基于不同年龄属性的视角,进行街头抢劫者作案地选择及影响因素的对比分析,并据此提出犯罪防控建议。研究发现：① 不同年龄的街头抢劫者作案地选择存在显著的空间差异。即少年抢劫者趋向在劳动密集型产业集聚区和中小学密集区作案,而年轻的成年抢劫者仅趋向于劳动密集型产业集聚区,但成年抢劫者的作案地却偏向于客运站所在社区及其周边地区。② 年龄相关的活动节点、周围人口的监护作用和青少年人口比例是形成这种空间差异的主要因素。研究结果对犯罪防控与社会治理具有重要的参考意义,如：① 在青少年抢劫者频繁作案的劳动密集型产业集聚区,调控网吧、酒吧等年龄相关活动节点的数量。② 在成年抢劫者作案密集的客运站及其周边社区,规划一定数量周围人口的持续存在,以发挥出更好的监护作用。③ 在青少年人口比例较高的社区,通过问题青少年的摸底调查,加强精准引导与帮扶。论文首次验证了不同年龄的街头抢劫者作案地选择差异及成因,并在理论上弥补了犯罪者作案地选择缺乏细分人群的不足。

An examination of crime location choice of street robbers and its influencing factors in ZG City

Crime location choice has been a central theme of crime geography research. However, the current research reveals little about the spatial differences among different age groups of criminals when they choose crime locations. Using kernel density estimation and discrete spatial choice models in ZG City, China, this study aims to explore the spatial variation in crime location choices of street robbers at different ages. We also examine the different influences of activity nodes, supervision role, and social disorganization on crime location choice. The results demonstrate that there are significant spatial differences in crime location choices by street robbers at different ages. Juvenile robbers tend to commit crimes in labor-intensive industrial clusters and primary and secondary school areas, young adult robbers tend to commit crimes only in labor-intensive industrial clusters, and adult robbers prefer urban areas with transportation hubs. Additionally, this study demonstrates that age-related activity nodes, the supervision role of the ambient population, and the proportion of youngsters are the main factors for such spatial differences. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows. (1) Cybercafés have impact on crime location choices of juvenile and young adult robbers, while transportation hubs affect those of young adult and adult robbers, and bars and schools influence all the three age groups, but with a marginal age decay effect. (2) The supervision role exerted by the ambient population is greater for young adult and adult robbers compared with juvenile robbers. (3) Young adult robbers are more likely to target communities with more youngsters but juvenile and adult robbers are not. (4) Journey to crime has a significant negative effect on target choices, especially on juvenile robbers. In addition, these findings have great informative value for crime prevention and social governance. For example, (i) in labor-intensive industrial clusters where juvenile robbers frequently commit crimes, we can regulate the number of age-related activity nodes such as cybercafés and bars; (ii) in transportation hubs and their surrounding communities where adult robbers commit crimes intensively, we can encourage the persistence of the ambient population to persist and play a better supervision role; (iii) in communities predominated by youth population, we can survey delinquent juveniles to enhance the precise guidance and support.