迁移者的居留、返乡与再迁移决策——基于事件史的分析

作为一个多阶段的空间行为决策过程,人口迁移是城镇化和区域发展研究的核心议题;但现有研究普遍存在重意愿轻行为、重状态轻过程以及较少关注再迁移行为等不足。本文构建了迁移者居留、返乡和再迁移三元选择行为的分析框架,并利用具有全国代表性的调查数据,采用事件史分析法开展了实证研究。结果发现：迁移者普遍会经历三年左右的不稳定期,而后进入稳定居留状态。迁移者的居留、返乡与再迁移行为存在空间分异：省际迁移者较省内迁移者更倾向于再迁移;迁入地规模等级越高,迁移者居留的比例越低。重要生命事件会显著影响人们的迁移行为：婚姻会让迁移者更偏好在特定迁入地稳定居留;毕业就职是人们重新选择居住地的重要时机,而失业这一负面冲击则很可能促使迁移者返回家乡。迁入地经济增长放缓、迁出地经济发展水平提高、两地间文化环境差异较大等因素都会导致更多迁移者选择返乡;但区域发展和地域联系对高学历、低学历迁移者和省际、省内迁移者的影响存在明显异质性。研究结果证实了在人口迁移决策研究中关注实际迁移行为、引入动态过程视角并统筹考虑居留返乡和再迁移三元选择的重要意义。

Stay,return, or move on: An event history analysis of migrants in China

There is a growing recognition that migration is a repetitive event, involving initial movements outside the hometown, and subsequent return or onward movements, which has a profound influence on the development of origins and destinations. This paper analyzes personal and regional reasons for migrants′ behavior of settling down, returning home and moving on. Based on data from the 2016 China Labor-force Dynamics Survey, and by using event history analysis, we investigate how life events, the characteristics of origins and destinations, and the multi-distance of migration affect migrants′ decision-making. The findings show that the probability of return and onward move is the highest in the first three years after initial movement, and then declines rapidly. The spatial differentiation of migrants' behavior is obvious, which is reflected in the following facts: First, inter-provincial migrants are more inclined to move on than intra-provincial ones. Second, the larger the city, the less likely that migrants settle down. Personal and regional factors play significant roles in determining migrants′ action. Migrants who have married are more likely to remain in the recent destination than those who are not married. Life events can induce the reselection of residence. Migrants will leave the current city when their studies come to an end, and are pretend to return home to acquire support from parents if they lose their jobs. The effect of origins and destinations′economic development as well as their distance is also notable. When the economic growth of the destinations slows down and the development of the origins improves, the migrants are more inclined to return home. The propensity for return is also high provided that the origins and destinations are located in different cultural districts. Additionally, the effect of regional features varies from inter- to intra-provincial migrants and from well- to less-educated migrants. The results above are instructive. First, the intentions and behaviors of the migrants are inconsistent, and the difference between the two is worth studying. Second, the timing of decision-making has a non-negligible impact on the behavior of migrants. The dual perspectives of individual life course and social environment changes in studying population migration need more attention. Last but not least, the dichotomy, return and not return, stay and leave, for instance, conceals the difference between settlement, return and onward movement, which should be included in the same framework for comparative analysis.