基于避难场所容量限制的地震应急疏散路径分析

针对地震灾害应急疏散策略,构建了一种基于避难场所容量限制的灾民应急疏散分配与路径选择算法模型。该模型综合考虑了避难场所的容量受限性和人口分布的不均匀性,在兼顾避难场所容量限制的同时,使灾民的总疏散距离成本最小化。以北京市东西城为例,对给定情景下的灾民应急疏散路径进行了实证研究。研究发现,在考虑避难容量限制的情形下,无论是地震初期,还是地震中后期,研究区域内现有应急避难场所的容量都不足以满足区域居民的避难需求。基于实际道路疏散成本和避难容量限制的灾区应急疏散路径评估模型,不仅能够给出各疏散需求点最佳的疏散目的地和具体路径,还能给出避难容量限制下各需求点疏散到不同目的地的人数,以及无法满足避难需求的居民数量。

Analysis of the Earthquake Emergency Evacuation Route Based on the Capacity of Shelters

Evacuation is an important measure to reduce the impacts and losses from natural disasters.Scientific and timely selection of the best evacuation path is of great significance for improving the efficiency of emergency evacuation and for the stability of society after an earthquake.For the measure of the earthquake emergency evacuation,an algorithm model of emergency evacuation arrangement and path selection based on the capacity of shelters is constructed.The model minimizes the cost of total evacuation distance for victims by considering the capacity of shelters and the uneven distribution of the population.Taking Dongcheng District and Xicheng District of Beijing as samples,the selection of the emergency evacuation route for the victims in a given scenario is studied.It is found that the capacity of the existing emergency shelters is not enough to meet the need of the residents living in the area,whether in the early stage or in the late period of an earthquake event.The evaluation model of emergency evacuation route in the disaster area based on the evacuation cost of the actual route for victims and the shelters'capacity,can not only give the best evacuation destinations and specific routes for each place on demand for evacuation,but also provide the number of the victims on demand for evacuation to different destinations as well as the number of the victims remained unevacuated.