新时代中国城市高质量发展的时空演进格局与驱动因素

高质量发展是巩固全面建成小康社会战略成果的必由之路,是绘制建设社会主义现代化国家宏伟蓝图的不二法门。本文将研究的空间尺度下移至城市层面,基于新发展理念构建评价体系,合成了高质量发展综合指数,通过空间自相关分析、空间基尼系数、马尔科夫转移矩阵、面板回归模型等统计与计量方法,剖析新时代中国城市高质量发展的时空演进格局与驱动因素。研究表明：① 2012—2019年中国城市高质量发展水平不断提升,其中东部、中部、西南、西北城市高质量发展综合指数持续增加,东北城市则先降后升。② 长三角城市群、珠三角城市群在高质量发展进程中充当了排头兵角色,宁夏沿黄城市群高质量发展排名相对靠后,辽中南城市群面临发展质量下滑的压力。③ 中国城市高质量发展在空间上大体呈现由东向西递减的规律,空间集聚特征突出,但高质量发展失调问题随时间推移得到缓解,低质量、中低质量、中等质量与中高质量状态城市具有向上一等级跃迁的动力,但难度逐级提升。此外,中国城市发展质量存在向下一等级转移的风险。④ 海拔高度、地形地势、产业集聚、市场规模、公共财政、对外开放均能显著影响中国城市高质量发展。为全方位驱动新时代中国城市高质量发展,需贯彻落实新发展理念,发挥先发城市的领头雁作用,带动后发城市高质量发展,通过重塑中国经济地理格局达成“普遍沸腾”的愿景。

Spatio-temporal evolution pattern and driving factors of high-quality development of Chinese cities in the new era

High-quality development is the only way to consolidate strategic achievements of building a moderately prosperous society, and to draw up the grand blueprint of basically realizing socialist modernization by 2035 and building China into a great modern socialist country by 2050. In this paper, we study the issue from the city level. Based on the new concept of development, the evaluation system is established. With the help of the vertical and horizontal level division method and fixed-based efficiency coefficient method, high-quality development comprehensive indexes are synthesized. Then, this paper applies spatial auto-correlation analysis, spatial Gini coefficient, Markov transfer matrix, panel regression model to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution pattern and driving factors of high-quality development of Chinese cities in the new era. The results show that: (1) The level of high-quality development of Chinese cities had been continuously optimized from 2012 to 2019, and high-quality development comprehensive indexes of eastern, central, southwestern and northwestern cities continue to increase, while that of northeastern cities first increase and then decrease. (2) In the process of high-quality development, the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta urban agglomerations are vanguards, urban agglomeration of Ningxia along the Yellow River, rank relatively low, while central-south Liaoning urban agglomeration faces the pressure of declining development quality. (3) The level of high-quality development of Chinese cities decreases from east to west with prominent spatial agglomeration, but the imbalance of high-quality development is alleviated over time. Cities with lower quality status have the power to jump to a higher level. However, the transition becomes more and more difficult. At the same time, there is a risk that the development quality of Chinese cities could be transferred to the lower level. (4) Low altitude, gentle topography, significant industrial agglomeration externality, huge market size, adequate public financial support, continuous and in-depth opening up are the driving forces for high-quality development of Chinese cities. In order to drive high-quality development of Chinese cities, we have responsibilities to implement the new concept of development by advocating innovative development, paying attention to coordinated development, accelerating green development, attaching importance to opening-up development, and promoting shared development. In this process, first-mover cities will play a leading role in propelling high-quality development of later-mover cities, and reshaping Chinese economic geography pattern to achieve “universal boiling” vision.