基于社会网络分析的ICT出口贸易网络结构特征及影响因素

利用联合国贸发数据库中2000—2018年的信息通信技术（Information and Communication Technology，ICT）贸易数据，采用二元和加权2个方法构建世界制造设备和电子元件出口贸易网络，在综合分析ICT贸易网络结构特征的基础上，采用QAP方法对ICT出口贸易网络进行结构演化解释。结果表明：① 制造设备和电子元件出口贸易的网络密度很高，世界各国（地区）ICT贸易关系密切；② 中国成为制造设备出口贸易网络的核心节点，发达经济体依旧占据主要市场；电子元件出口贸易网络中存在投资带动发展以及“抱团”现象，中国的电子元件在出口贸易网络中也占据着重要地位；③ 多维距离因素能够解释制造设备和电子元件出口贸易网络的结构变化的18%和15%。这一结论为中国ICT产业参与全球贸易制定相关政策提供依据。

Structural Characteristics and Influencing Factors of ICT Export Trade Network Based on Social Network Analysis

With the rapid development of information and communication technology (ICT) trade, the composition of trade presents a growing trend of diversification, complexity and networking. Therefore, it is necessary for us to conduct a study in a systematic way on the structure of ICT trade network. On account of the ICT trade data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) database from 2000 to 2018, this article constructs the global export trade network for manufacturing equipment (Computers and peripheral equipment, communication equipment and consumer electronic equipment) and electronic components using binary and weighted methods. On the basic of the comprehensive analysis of the structural characteristics of the ICT trade network, this article uses the QAP method to explain the structural evolution and the influencing factors of the ICT export trade network. The results show that: 1) The network densities of the export trade of manufacturing equipment and electronic components are both very high, which shows that ICT trade is closely related to countries (regions) around the world; 2) China has become the core node of the manufacturing equipment export trade network, what’s more, developed economies still occupy the main market; In the electronic components export trade network, there are investment-driven development. ‘Agglomeration’ is another phenomenon emerging in the electronic component export trade network. China also occupies an important position in the electronic components export trade network; 3) The multi-dimensional distance factor can explain 18% of the structural change of the export trade network of manufacturing equipment; The explanatory power of multidimensional distance factor to the change of electronic component export trade structure can reach 15%. The conclusions of this paper can provide a basis for China’s ICT industry to participate in global trade policies.