中国海洋经济高质量发展评价与影响因素研究

科学评价海洋经济高质量发展水平是准确把握新时代背景下海洋经济高质量发展的关键环节。基于面板、门槛、贝叶斯等多指标评价模型，考虑指标时效性研究与内在逻辑联系，以海洋经济高质量发展的前提-路径-目的为分析框架，评价2007—2017年中国沿海11省市海洋经济高质量发展水平和区域差异，分析其影响因素及优化路径选择等。结果表明：① 通过指数测算和综合分析，沿海11省市海洋经济高质量发展情况差异较大。从高质量发展前提来看，各省市发展稳定，基础水平呈明显的3个梯队；从高质量发展路径来看，各省市差异较大，上海优势明显，天津与广东有一定的优势，广西、海南需要注重实力与稳定性的共同提升，其他省市发展需要注重稳定性；从高质量发展目的来看，各省市发展较不稳定，实现结果差异小，没有明显的梯队形成，但广东省与浙江省有显著的提升趋势。② 海洋经济创新驱动对实现海洋经济高质量发展目的呈“V”字型影响，目前创新驱动对中国海洋经济高质量发展影响程度最大，潜力较大。③ 海洋经济发展结构优化对实现海洋经济高质量发展目的呈“U”字型影响，目前结构优势红利尚不明显，需推进结构优化向下一个门槛跨越。④ 海洋经济发展效率提升对实现海洋经济高质量发展目的具有正向的显著影响，其发展基础好，潜力最大。⑤ 海洋经济市场环境优化对实现海洋经济高质量发展目的呈现先增加后减少的正向影响趋势，目前红利不明显，需推进市场环境优化向第三门槛跨越。

Evaluation and Influencing Factors of High-quality Development of Marine Economy in China

Scientific evaluation of the level of high-quality development of the marine economy is the key link to accurately grasping the high-quality development of the marine economy in the context of the New Era. Based on the multi-indicator evaluation models such as panel, threshold, and Bayesian, the article considers the study of the timeliness of indicators and the internal logical connection. It takes the premise-path-the purpose of high-quality development of the marine economy as the analytical framework to evaluate the level and regional differences of high-quality development of marine economy in 11 coastal provinces and cities in China from 2007 to 2017, to analyze its influencing factors and optimize the path selection, etc. The results show that: 1) Through index measurement and comprehensive analysis, the high-quality development of the marine economy in 11 coastal provinces, municipalities and autonomous varies greatly. From the premise of high-quality development, the provinces and cities are stable in development. The basic level is in three distinct echelons; from the path of high-quality development, there are great differences among provinces and cities, Shanghai having the strongest and most stable capacity, Tianjin and Guangdong having stronger and more stable capacity, Guangxi and Hainan having poor and less stable capacity, others having poor but relatively stable capable. From the perspective of high-quality development purposes, the development of provinces and cities is more unstable, achieving minor differences in results. There is no obvious echelon formation, but Guangdong and Zhejiang have a significant trend of improvement. 2) The innovation-driven marine economy has a ‘V’ shape impact on achieving high-quality development of the marine economy. At present, the innovation drive has the most significant impact on the high-quality development of China's marine economy and has greater potential. 3) The optimization of marine economic development structure has a ‘U’ shape impact on the realization of high-quality development of the marine economy. Currently, the structural advantage dividend is not yet obvious, and it is needed to promote structural optimization to cross the next threshold. 4) The improvement of marine economy development efficiency has a positive and significant impact on realizing the purpose of high-quality development of marine economy, and its development foundation is good and has the greatest potential. 5) The optimization of the marine economic market environment presents a positive influence trend of increasing first and then decreasing for the purpose of achieving high-quality development of the marine economy. The market environment dividend is not obvious at present, so it is necessary to push the optimization of market environment to the third threshold.