| 基于指数平滑法与回归分析相结合的滑坡预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 尹光志,张卫中,张东明,康钦容. 基于指数平滑法与回归分析相结合的滑坡预测[J]. 岩土力学, 2007, 28(8): 1725-1728 |
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| 作者姓名： | 尹光志 张卫中 张东明 康钦容 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.重庆大学 资源及环境科学学院，重庆400044；2.中南财经政法大学 安全科学与管理学院，武汉430074 |
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| 摘 要： | 滑坡时间预报研究是滑坡研究中的一个热门课题。以实际监测数据为基础，把指数平滑法与非线性回归分析法结合起来；以滑坡的变形值和变形速率为判据，对滑坡进行时间失稳的动态跟踪预报。根据某滑坡的实际情况，对部分监测点位移进行了建模和预测，预测结果表明，该方法具有较高的精度，可以应用于实际工程。
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| 关 键 词： | 指数平滑法 非线性回归分析 滑坡预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-7598-（2007）08-1725-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-08-19 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-08-19 |
Forecasting of landslide displacement based on exponential smoothing and nonlinear regression analysis |
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| YIN Guang-zhi,ZHANG Wei-zhong,ZHANG Dong-ming,KANG Qin-rong. Forecasting of landslide displacement based on exponential smoothing and nonlinear regression analysis[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics, 2007, 28(8): 1725-1728 |
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| Authors: | YIN Guang-zhi ZHANG Wei-zhong ZHANG Dong-ming KANG Qin-rong |
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| Affiliation: | 1. College of Resources and Environmental Science, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China; 2.School of Safety Science and Administration，Zhongnan University of Economics and Law (ZUEL)，Wuhan 430074, China |
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| Abstract: | The landslide forecasting study is one of the hot problems in landslide research.Based on the actual observation data,the exponential smoothing and nonlinear regression analysis are integrated.According to the criterions of displacement and displacement velocity,the dynamic track prediction about the slippage time of landslide is introduced.In light of the pratical landslide conditions,a model was established for the special displacement of some observation points;and the prediction based on this model was obtained with high accuracy.Therefore,the method can be used in practical engineering. |
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| Keywords: | exponential smoothing nonlinear regression analysis prediction of landslide |
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