中国地质勘查周期及成因分析

本文开拓性地系统研究建国以来中国地质勘查周期,引入经济周期理论、工业化发展阶段理论、矿产品使用强度理论、政治决策因素、市场因素等对地质勘查周期进行了解释,试图理清多年来认识不清的问题。通过统计建国以来历年地质勘查投入、钻探工作量、见矿异常和发现矿产地等数据,划分了8次地质勘查工作周期。在对我国经济周期和财政周期研究的基础上,提出了地勘工作周期与经济和财政周期相对应的观点。此外,通过研究建国以来工业化进程和国家经济发展战略的选择,结合矿产品使用强度变化趋势,认为在重工业化发展阶段,矿产品使用强度处于高位,从而地勘投入处于高位;在农业、轻工业化发展阶段,地勘工作逐渐走弱。2013年后,随着我国进入工业化后期阶段,地勘工作处于新一轮弱势状态。地勘工作周期体现了长期国家发展战略主动选择、工业化进程与短期财政和经济波动双重叠加的特点,短期政策因素则常对地勘周期波动时有放大或熨平作用。

Geological exploration cycles in China and their causes

This article systematically investigates the geological exploration cycles dated back to the foundation of new China. In light of theories on economic cycles, stage-wise industrialization, and minerals utilization strength, as well as political decision and the market factors, we interpret the geological exploration cycles and attempt to address the issues that remain unsolved for many years. Eight geological exploration work cycles are proposed according to the statistics of geological exploration invest, drilling, pit exploration, trenching, well exploration, ore anomaly detection and mining area discoveries. Analysis shows that the geological exploration work cycles varied with the change of economic and financial cycles. In addition, comparing the industrialization process and national economic development strategy with variation of mineral using intensity suggests that both the mineral using intensity and the investment in geological exploration were high in the heavy industry development stage. However, geological exploration tended to be weak in the agriculture and light industry development stage. And this industry experienced a new round of weakening cycle when China entered into the post industrialization age after 2013. Geological exploration work cycles reflect the combined effect of the long-term national development strategy choice, industrialization process and the short-term fiscal and economic fluctuations. Short-term policies often enhance or smooth the fluctuation of the geological exploration cycle.