基于库伊克模型的地面沉降预测分析

针对地面沉降与地下水水位变化的内在关系,考虑地面沉降受到自身变化规律的影响,建立基于库伊克变换的地面沉降预测模型,应用该模型对某地区地面沉降统计数据进行模拟预测,有效实现该地区地面沉降与地下水水位以及本身之间的定量模拟,并探讨模型的拟合效果和预测精度。结果表明库伊克模型拟合效果较好,预测精度较高,能较好地反映研究区域的地面沉降变形趋势。

Forecasting analysis of land subsidence based on Koyck model

According to the relationship between land subsidence and groundwater level ,and taking into account the impact from land subsidence itself ,this paper prosents a prediction model of land subsidence based on Koyck transform .The statistical data of a certain area are simulated and predicted ,on which the quantitative simulation of the relationship between land subsidence and groundwater level ,and itself is implemented efficiently . T he fitting effect and prediction accuracy of the model are discussed too .T he results show the Koyck model is well fitted and has higher prediction accuracy ,which can reflect well the trend of land subsidence .