| 2007年地气图方法预测总结和北京奥运期间降水预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 汤懋苍,李洁,周长春.2007年地气图方法预测总结和北京奥运期间降水预测[J].甘肃气象,2008,26(3):72-75. |
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| 作者姓名： | 汤懋苍 李洁 周长春 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,甘肃兰州730000 [2]兰州高原天灾预防研究所,甘肃兰州730000 [3]中国科学院研究生院,北京100029 |
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| 摘 要： | 对2007年做出的各项气候预测进行了回顾，汛期预报中预测的西北大部、淮河流域和福建3块多雨区基本正确，它们都是根据地气图的基本原理预测得到。月降水预报取得平均70．5分的好成绩，这得益于地气系统的活动规律较单纯；年度预报则基本上失败了，这是因为2008年1月我国发生了6．9级强震，破坏了地气系统的正常运行规律，使预报准确率大为降低。最后还对2008年8月的月降水预测进行了讨论。
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| 关 键 词： | 地气图 气候预测 地气环流(地下气象) |
Review of Climate Prediction in 2007 Based on Di -qi Map and Precipitation Prediction During Beijin Olympics |
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| TANG Maocang,LI Jie,ZHOU Changchun.Review of Climate Prediction in 2007 Based on Di -qi Map and Precipitation Prediction During Beijin Olympics[J].Gansu Meteorology,2008,26(3):72-75. |
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| Authors: | TANG Maocang LI Jie ZHOU Changchun |
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| Institution: | TANG Maocang, LI Jie, ZHOU Changchun ( 1. Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, CAS, Lanzhou 730000, China; 2. Lanzhou Plateau Institute of Natural Disasters Prediction, Lanzhou 730000, China; 3. Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China) |
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| Abstract: | The precipitation prediction in 2007 was reviewed. In the flood season, the prediction that the great part of Northwest China, Huaihe Valley and Fujian would be three more rainfall areas is basically correct, which based on the Di - qi map forecast principle. The monthly precipitation prediction gets a good average score of 70.5, which is due to the simple underground gas system actions. But because of the Ms6.9 earthquake happened in China in January 2008, which destroyed the normal operation of underground gas system and caused the forecast accuracy reduced greatly, the year prediction is basically unsuccessful. Finally the precipitation prediction of August, 2008 was discussed. |
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| Keywords: | Di - qi map climate prediction underground gas circulation |
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