中国城市主要自然灾害风险评价研究

本文依据灾害系统理论和中国自然灾害数据库，构建了反映城市承灾体的综合城市化水平（CL）指标，并在此基础上得到城市脆弱性水平指数。考虑对城市具有结构性破坏和易于造成交通灾情的主要灾种，即水灾、地震、滑坡—泥石流、台风、沙尘暴，构建了反映城市主要致灾因子的综合自然灾害强度（QC）指标，并得到城市综合自然灾害强度指数。据此，在定性分析的基础上，通过半定量计算，将中国城市主要自然灾害风险划分为高风险、较高风险、中等风险、较低风险、低风险5个等级，编制了中国城市自然灾害风险评价图，并对灾害链的综合风险评价作了进一步的探讨。

Urban Risk Assessment Research of Major Natural Disasters in China

According to disaster system theory and the natural disaster database of China, this paper builds the urban vulnerability index on the basis of the integrated urbanization level index (CL) of hazard-affected bodies; and considering the structural damage and the influence on traffic of different natural disasters, this paper chooses five major disaster types (including flood, earthquake, debris flow-rock slide, typhoon and dust storm) to build and compute the integrated intensity index of major natural hazards (QC). Then through qualitative analysis and semi-quantitative calculation, the integrated urban risk of major natural disasters in china is divided into five grades, namely very high, high, medium, low and very low grades, and the corresponding assessment map is worked out. At last, some further discussion is done about the integrated risk assessment of natural disaster chains.