基于潮汐表数据同化的天文潮数值预报模型及其模拟预报效果

潮汐表是利用长期潮汐观测结果经调和分析实现的主要港湾潮汐预报结果,具有较高的预报精度,而通常的天文潮数值预报目前还难以达到潮汐表的预报精度.本研究在建立常规天文潮数值预报模型的基础上,建立了基于潮汐表数据同化的天文潮数值预报模型,并分别采用这2种模型预报福建沿岸海域的天文潮.其结果表明同化模型的预报结果无论是在潮时还是在潮高均明显优于常规模型;同化模型能显著地改善所研究的沿岸海域90个水位点中至少45个水位点的潮汐预报结果,而其他水位点的预报结果也有不同程度地改善.

A numerical model for tide forecasting from assimilation of tide table data and its forecasting results

Tide table data is the main harmonic analysis forecasting data of tides based on long-term tide observations.It has a higher forecasting accuracy than the normal astronomical numerical forecasting tide model.Here a new tide model was established by assimilating tide table data into the normal astronomical numerical forecasting tide model.By adopting these two models for the forecasting of astronomical tides along the Fujian coast,the new model produced distinctly better tidal forecasting results than that of the normal tide model both in aspects of tidal time and height.At least 45 of the gridding points of the 90 coastal gridding points used showed markedly better forecasting results whilst results at the other points were also improved to lesser degrees.