塔里木河流域冰川变化及其对水资源影响

在近一个世纪以来全球变暖趋势显著的背景下,1980年代中后期以来新疆等地区的降水、出山径流出现持续增加现象,冰川也呈加速萎缩状态.作者从区域冰川研究入手,研究在这种气候暖湿转变背景下,塔里木河流域冰川变化的响应及其影响.通过应用大比例尺地形图、高分辨率卫星遥感影像及航空摄影照片获得了塔里木河流域3000多条冰川1960年代初以来的变化,表明该流域近30多年来冰川呈总体萎缩状态,冰川退缩已给塔里木河流域水资源变化带来了明显的影响.

Impact of the Glacial Change on Water Resources in the Tarim River Basin

The Tarim River Basin, a river system converged by nine source tributaries, is the mostly glacierised watershed in the arid northwest China, where there are 11665 glaciers with a total area of 19878 km² and a volume of 2313 km³. Glaciers in the basin play a significant role in the water resource formation and variations. An estimation indicated that glaciers provide meltwater of about 133×10⁸ m³ every year, taking 39% of the total river runoff. With the influence of global warming, northwest China has experienced a general warming and drying change of climate since the mid-19th century. However, a so-called “warm and wet transition” of climate in the region has occurred since the late 1980s, exhibiting as an increase both in precipitation and outlet discharge in Xinjiang and neighborhood regions. This paper attempts to reveal how glaciers in the Tarim River Basin response to such a warming and wetting change and what impact glacier changes exert. We analyzed the variations of more than 3000 glaciers since the 1960s by applying topographical maps, high resolution satellite images and aerial photos for the river basin. Results indicate that glaciers in the basin has been mostly in retreat in recent 40 years, and the ice wastage have significantly influenced the variations of water resources in the Tarim River Basin.