雷暴探测研究的进展

基于达州市2015年10月-2016年9月的闪电定位和探空观测资料，以850 hPa与500 hPa温差、大气可降水量、K指数、对流有效位能、对流抑制和抬升指数作为雷暴预警因子，利用投影寻踪动态聚类方法对该时段内的雷暴个例构建了预警模型。结果表明：（1）模型预报结果定量评估的临界成功指数为72.00%，该模型对个例达到了识别和预警效果；（2）该预警模型与常规预警方法相比，具有识别率高，计算简便，客观性强等特点，可为雷暴预警提供了一种新的客观预报方法。

A Projection Pursuit Algorithm for Exploratory Data Analysis

Based on data of lightning locations and sounding observation data in Dazhou from October 2015 to September 2016, taking temperature difference between 850 hPa and 500 hPa, precipitable water, K Index, convective available potential energy, convective inhibition energy and lifting index as thunderstorm warning factors, the projection pursuit dynamic cluster method is used to construct the warning model for thunderstorms in the period. The results are as follows. (1) The critical success index for quantitative evaluation of model prediction results was 72%, and the case mentioned above was identified by this method. (2) Compared to conventional warning methods, this model has advantages of high recognition rate, simple calculation and objectivity. The model provides a new objective method for thunderstorm warning.