华蓥山中段地质灾害发育分布规律与孕灾因子敏感性研究

华蓥山地质环境条件复杂，矿山开采活动强烈，地质灾害极为发育。以华蓥山中段为研究对象，在充分收集最新的地质灾害数据库和野外调查基础上，从地形地貌、地质构造、河流侵蚀、地表覆被及人类工程活动方面分析了地质灾害发育分布规律，利用基于证据权法的敏感性计算方法对地质灾害孕灾因子敏感性进行了分析，创新性的提出了运用证据权相对系数的方差作为敏感性指数，并采用两种敏感性指数定量分析了各孕灾因子对地质灾害发育分布的影响程度。结果表明：（1）地质灾害空间分布差异明显、分布不均，主要沿华蓥山两侧的山前地带带状分布，整体上华蓥山西坡地质灾害较东坡发育；（2）各孕灾因子对地质灾害发育的影响程度差异明显，地质灾害对于工程地质岩组的敏感性最高，工程地质岩组、坡高、矿山开发、地表覆被对地质灾害发育的控制作用相对较强，而公路修建、河流侵蚀对地质灾害发育的控制作用较弱；（3）运用基于证据权的敏感性分析方法，定量分析各孕灾因子对地质灾害发育的影响，该方法科学可靠、方便易行，可为地质灾害敏感性评价工作提供参考。研究成果不仅可为华蓥山地质灾害防治工作提供科学依据，而且可为孕灾因子与地质灾害间的关系、地质灾害敏感性等的研究提供新思路。

STUDY ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND DISTRIBUTION LAW OF GEOLOGICAL HAZARDS AND SENSITIVITY OF HAZARD-BREWING FACTORS IN THE MIDDLE SECTION OF HUAYING MOUNTAIN

In Huaying mountain, the geological structure is very complex, mining and other human engineering activities are intense, and geological hazards are well developed. Taking the middle section of Huaying mountiainas the study area. Based on fully collecting the latest geological hazard database and field investigation, the law of development and distribution of geological hazards is analyzed from the aspects of topography and landform, geological structure, River erosion, surface cover and human engineering activities. The weanalyzed the sensitivity of hazard-brewing factors based on the WOE model. Innovatively, the variance of relative coefficient of evidence weight is used as sensitivity index. Finally, two sensitivity indices are used to quantitatively analyze the influence degree of each hazard-brewing factor on the development and distribution of geological hazards. The results show that:(1)The spatial distribution of geological hazards is obviously different and uneven. Geological hazards mainly distribute along the piedmont zones on both sides of Huaying Mountain. The geological hazards on the western slope are more developed than those on the eastern slope. (2)The influences of hazard-brewing factors on the development of geological hazards are obviously different. The sensitivity of geological hazards to engineering geological formations factor is the highest. Engineering geological formations, slope heights, mining development and surface cover play a relatively strong role in controlling the development of geological hazards. Highway construction and river erosion play a weak role in controlling the development of geological hazards. (3)Using sensitivity analysis method based on WOE model, we can quantitatively analyzed the influence of hazard-brewing factors on the development of geological hazards. This method is scientific, reliable, convenient and feasible. The research results can not only provide scientific basis for the prevention and control of geological hazards in Huaying Mountain, but also provide new ideas for the study of the relationship between hazard-brewing factors and geological hazards and the sensitivity of geological hazards.