边坡模糊随机可靠性分析的模糊点估计法

在统计矩点估计法和模糊随机理论的基础之上，提出边坡工程模糊随机可靠性分析的模糊点估计法，将边坡稳定性极限状态方程由模糊随机集向普通随机集转化，然后利用点估计法求解边坡的可靠度指标。鉴于岩土体物理力学参数的近似分布类型，采用区别于梯形模糊数的正态模糊数对随机变量进行模糊随机化处理，使其更趋近于物理力学参数的近似分布类型。该方法考虑了各个力学参数的模糊性，计算结果更能反映边坡的真实工作状态。算例分析结果表明，该法使用简便，计算效率高，结果可靠，避免了传统分析方法的缺点，对复杂边坡或者功能函数为隐式表达的边坡工程可靠性分析具有很大的潜力，为边坡可靠性分析提供了一条新的途径，具有广泛的应用前景。

Fuzzy random reliability analysis of slope based on fuzzy point estimate method

The fuzzy point estimate method of slope engineering reliability evaluation is presented based on the statistical moment point estimate method and fuzzy random theory.The slope stability limit state equation is transformed from fuzzy random set to normal random set,then the point estimation method is used to solve the slope reliability indexes.In view of the approximate distribution types for physico-mechanical parameters of rock mass,the normal fuzzy number,which is different from the normal number is used to do fuzzy random variable.By doing this,the physico-mechanical parameters are closer to its real distribution types.The fuzziness of various mechanical parameters is considered.The calculation results can reflect the true working condition of slope.A case study shows that the method has a higher calculation efficiency and reliable calculation results,and it is convenient in use;it also avoids the shortcomings of traditional methods.The method has great potential for slope reliability analysis of complex slope or functions for implicit expression;it provides a new way to slope reliability analysis and has a broad prospect of application.