基于功效系数法的泥石流灾害预警研究

泥石流灾害破坏力巨大，预测预报泥石流发生的可能性是防灾减灾的重要手段，也是国内外学者研究的热点。基于功效系数法原理，在综合分析泥石流灾害发生的气象、地质环境影响因素的基础上，选取了山坡坡度、相对高差、植被覆盖率、沿沟松散物储量、5 d累计降雨量、最大小时雨强和当日雨量为评价因子，采用改进后的层次分析法计算评价因子的权重系数，建立了泥石流预测预警模型。以岫岩地区泥石流为例对预警模型进行检验，预测结果较好地反映了实际情况。表明基于功效系数法的泥石流预测预警模型具备较高的可靠性和实用性，研究结果为泥石流预测预警提供了一种新的思路和方法。

Research on early warning of debris flow based on efficacy coefficient method

For great destructive debris flow,predicting the likelihood of its early warning is an important means of disaster prevention and mitigation,as well as scholars focus on the key issues.Based on the principle of efficacy coefficient method,analyzing the meteorological and geological environmental factors synthetically;evaluation factors such as hill slope,relative height,vegetation cover,along the groove loose material reserves,5 d cumulative rainfall,maximum rainfall intensity per hour,and intraday rainfall are selected.Using the improved analytic hierarchy process to calculate the weight coefficients of evaluation factors,a early warning of debris flow prediction model is established.Taking an early warning of debris flow in Xiuyan for example,the model is tested to predict the results which reflect the actual situation better.The debris flow early warning model has higher reliability and practicability,and it can provide new ideas and methods for early warning of debris flow prediction.