吉林省冬季气温变化对采暖期的影响

利用1960—2009年吉林省46个测站平均气温和最低气温资料,利用采暖强度、采暖指数、气温趋势倾向和M-K检验方法,分析吉林省采暖期气温变化特征及变化规律。结果表明：吉林省采暖期平均气温、最低气温均呈上升趋势,低于-20℃的日数明显减少。近50 a平均气温、最低气温趋势倾向值为0.24℃/10 a、0.42℃/10 a;特别是近10 a来上升趋势明显,平均气温、最低气温倾向值为0.84℃/10 a、1.25℃/10 a,最低气温的升温趋势较为明显。吉林省采暖开始日呈推迟趋势,采暖结束日呈提前趋势,从而使采暖期日数缩短。根据突变分析,采暖期气温变化的突变年为1985年。吉林省采暖期长、采暖强度强的年份大部分出现在20世纪80年代中期以前;采暖期短、采暖强度弱的年份多出现在80年代以后。采暖指数分析表明,20世纪80年代中期以前,采暖指数以正值为主;80年代中期以后,采暖指数以负值为主,90年代均为负值,但在近10 a采暖指数波动幅度加大。由于采暖强度降低、采暖期日数缩短,合理利用气温条件开展采暖工作,可以减少向大气排放CO2、SO2和NO2,对减缓气候变暖、改善大气环境质量有重要的现实意义。

The effect of winter air temperature variation on the heating period in Jilin province

Based on the mean temperature,the minimum temperature data from 46 weather stations from 1960 to 2009 in Jilin province,heating intensity and heating index were calculated,and the characteristics of temperature variation and rules were analyzed by methods of a tendency analysis and a Mann-Kendall test.The results indicate that the mean and minimum temperatures are the increasing trends in the heating period.The number of days that temperature is lower than-20 ℃ decreases obviously.The mean and minimum temperature tendency rates are 0.24 ℃/decade and 0.42 ℃/decade in the recent 50 years,especially in the recent decade with 0.84 ℃/decade and 1.25 ℃/decade respectively,and the increasing tendency of the minimum temperature is obvious.The heating beginning date is in a delaying trend,while the heating ending date is in an advancing trend.Thus,the number of days of the heating period is shortened.The abrupt change of temperature during the heating period occurs in 1985.The heating period is long and the heating intensity is strong before the middle period of 1980s,while the heating period is short and the heating intensity is weak after 1980s.The heating index is mainly positive before the middle period of 1980s,while it is mainly negative after 1980s,especially in 1990s.However,the fluctuant amplitude of the heating index increases in the recent decade.The reasonable heating plans could be carried out according to temperature conditions because of the decreasing heating intensity and the shortening heating days,which can reduce emissions of carbon dioxide,sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide to the atmosphere and it is important to palliation climate warming and improve the quality of atmospheric environment.