中国地震预报中地震学异常的统计研究

根据 198 8年以来全国地震趋势会商会 (NMSC)所提出的各类地震学异常资料 ,研究每一年异常与下一年大陆地震的对应关系 .9a内 46种地震学方法所提出的93 2项异常资料表明 :在 1989～ 1993年间 ,用地震学预报地震方法的数量有一个增大过程 ;各种方法所提出的异常对应地震的比率在 0～ 48%之间 ,平均为 2 8%左右 ,这也与我国地震预报中预报区数的成功率相当 ;统计预报、区域应力场增强、地震条带、小震调制比和b值等方法有较高的地震对应率 ,而地震活动异常平静、分数维、异常震群、c值和地震窗等方法要差一些 ;用地震学方法预报地震最成功的年份为1989年 ,最差年份为 1990年 ;与预报区数的成功比率一样 ,其地震的对应比率并未随时间的推移而有所提高 .各种地震学方法的物理内涵及其与地震孕育的内在联系及各种地震学方法间相互关联问题是今后用地震学方法预报地震的研究课题 .

THE STATISTICAL STUDY ON SEISMOLOGICAL ANOMALIES IN EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION OF CHINA

By using various seismological anomalies obtained from the Meeting of National Seismological Consideration (MNSC) from 1988 to 1996,the relationship between the anomalies in a certain year and the earthquakes occurring in the Chinese mainland in the next year is studied.The data of 932 anomalies obtained by more than 46 prediction methods of the seismometry in the past nine years show that the number of the prediction methods of seismometry increased from 1988 to 1996.The corresponding ratios for different seismological anomalies with moderate or larger earthquakes are between 0 and 48%,the average value is about 28%,which is numerically equal to the corrective ratio of the forecasting regional number in Chinese earthquake prediction.The methods of the statistical prediction,the strengthening of regional stress field,the seismic bands,the modulation ratio of small earthquakes and the b-value have higher corresponding ratios with earthquakes,and the methods of the anomalous calm of seismic activity,the fractal dimension,the anomalous earthquake swarm,the c-value and the earthquake windows have lower corresponding ratios with earthquakes.The year when there is the highest forecasting ratio is 1989,and the year when there is the lowest forecasting ratio is 1990.As the same corrective ratio of the forecasting regional number,the corresponding ratio of seismological anomaly does not increase with time.The questions such as the physical meaning of every seismological prediction method and the inner relationship between the seismological anomaly and the earthquake,etc.will be studied further in the future.