A semi‐analytical approach for predicting peak discharge of floods caused by embankment dam failures |
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| Authors: | Bo Wang Yunliang Chen Chao Wu Jianhua Dong Xiao Ma Jiajun Song |
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| Affiliation: | 1. State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China;2. State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering, College of Water Resources and Hydropower, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China |
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| Abstract: | This study presents an analytical solution of dam‐break floods in a trapezoidal channel with detailed solution procedure. An approach predicting the peak discharge of floods caused by embankment dam failures was derived from the aforementioned analytical solution with a database of 27 historical dam failures. The prediction performance of this approach has been proved by comparing with other 14 straightforward equations for estimating the peak discharge. The proposed model with a small uncertainty of predicted peak flow rates has a high coefficient of determination and a small standard error, being ranked in the top four of the 15 methods considered in this paper. The robustness and predictive capability of the proposed model are further demonstrated in two case studies, and both were considered in the previous analyses performed by other investigators. This method provides a simple and transparent tool for engineers to predict the peak discharge and is easy to implement for trial and error calculation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
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| Keywords: | embankment dam failure peak discharge analytical solution prediction method |
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