0509号台风暴雨过程分析与暴雨灾害评估

针对2005年8月8～10日辽宁区域性台风暴雨过程,以常规气象资料、自动站资料及卫星云图资料为基础进行分析。结果表明:暴雨是台风、副热带高压与西风槽相互作用的结果,较好的水汽条件是产生台风暴雨的重要条件之一,低空急流是水汽输送的通道,也是台风暴雨的明显特征之一;结合单站气压连续变化以及云系变化判断“麦莎”登陆时间地点;应用基于概率分析的暴雨事件快速评估模型对暴雨灾害进行评估,评估表明暴雨过程为三级暴雨灾害,属中度级别。

Analysis of torrential rain process and its disaster assessment during 0509 typhoon MATSA

The torrential rain process of regional typhoon MATSA from August 8 to 10 in 2005 in Liaoning was analyzed based on conventional meteorological data,automatic weather stations data and satellite data.It indicated that the torrential rain was the result of interaction among typhoon,subtropical high and west wind trough.Preferable water vapor was one of the important conditions to come into being typhoon rainstorm.Low level jet was not only the transport pathway of water vapor,but also one of the obvious characteristics of typhoon torrential rain.At the same time,the time and the site of typhoon MATSA landing were estimated according to continual air pressure changes in single station and cloud system changes.Using a rapid assessment model of torrential rain event based on probability analysis,the torrential rain disaster was evaluated.It showed that the grade of torrential rain disaster was third grade.