本世纪西北气候可能转型的依据和原因分析

西北气候是否正在或已经转型不仅是个科学问题,它也与该地区甚至全国的生态建设和国民经济的可持续发展密切相关.从地球系统科学的角度出发,对西北地区气候转型问题进行了探讨.利用太阳活动周期长度、孢粉及冰芯等资料,在分析了西北气候变化的周期规律后指出,西北气候已经完成了由冷到暖的“转型”;推测西北的“千年湿期”将从22世纪开始;西北东部气候转为湿型可能要发生在2020年以后.

The Evidences and the Causes for the Shift of Climate Pattern in Northwest China During This Century

Whether the climate in Northwest China is shifting or has been shifting are not only a scientific issue, but also an important factor to regional, even national, social-economical development and ecologic construction. Standing on the viewpoint of earth system, the issue on climatic shift has been discussed in this paper. After analyzing the periodicities of climate change in Northwest China by using data of Length of Solar Cycle, pollen and ice cores, it is found that the climate in Northwest China has completed the transferring from cold to warm, a new millenarian wet period will begin since 22 nd century, and the climate in the east part of Northwest China will turn to wet after 2020.