Costing the impact of climate change on tourism in Europe: results of the PESETA project |
| |
Authors: | Bas Amelung Alvaro Moreno |
| |
Institution: | (1) International Centre for Integrated assessment and Sustainable development (ICIS), Maastricht University, P.O. box 616, 6200 MD Maastricht, The Netherlands;(2) Environmental Systems Analysis group, Wageningen University, P.O. box 47, 6700, AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands |
| |
Abstract: | Climate change might lead to large shifts in tourist flows, with large economic implications. This article simulates the effect
of future climate change by the 2080s on outdoor international tourism expenditure within Europe. The assessment is based
on the statistical relationship between bed nights and a climate-related index of human comfort, after accounting for other
determinants of bed nights such as income and prices. It is concluded that climate change could have significant impacts on
the regional distribution of the physical resources supporting tourism in Europe. For example, in summer, Southern Europe
could experience climate conditions that are less favourable to tourism than the current climate, while countries in the North
could enjoy better conditions. The economic effects of these changes are likely to be sizeable, albeit difficult to assess.
Crucially, they are shown to depend on tourists’ temporal flexibility with respect to holiday planning. The greater the prominence
of institutional rigidities such as school holidays, the larger the differences between winning and losing regions in terms
of economic impact. |
| |
Keywords: | |
本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录! |
|