Global-Scale Relationships between Climate and the Dengue Fever Vector, Aedes Aegypti

Considerable interest exists inthe potential role climate may play in human healthissues, especially regarding the effect of climatechange on vector-borne disease. The Aedesaegypti mosquito, the principal vector for dengue,considered the most important vector-borne viraldisease in the world, is particularly susceptible toclimate variability and climatic change. Here wepresent a modeling analysis focusing on global-scaleassociations between climate and the development,potential distribution, and population dynamics ofAe. aegypti. We evaluate the model by comparingand contrasting model data with observed mosquitodensities. There is good agreement between theobserved and modeled global distribution of themosquito; however, the model results suggest thepotential for increased latitudinal distributionsduring warmer months. Seasonal fluctuations inmosquito abundance also compare well to observed data. Discrepancies possibly reflect the relatively lowresolution of the climate data and model output andthe inability of the model to account for localmicroclimate effects, especially in coastal areas.Future modeling efforts will involve study ofinterannual variability in mosquito dynamics.