水资源经济政策CGE 模型及在北京市的应用

水资源经济政策的研究对于解决突出的水问题具有重要意义，本文采用2002 年北京市投入产出表和有关 的水资源公报等数据，通过单列水行业和废污水行业建立了基于一般均衡理论的水资源经济CGE(Computable General Equilibrium)模型和相应的42×53 多部门水资源投入产出表，利用GEMPACK 软件包，对北京市水资源经济 政策进行了模拟和分析。模拟显示，当水价增加10%时，行业产出和销售量变化呈现不同的特点和变动趋势；当水 量增加10%时，造成行业产出的变化和销售量的变动也值得深虑。该成果可为制定和实施水资源政策提供决策参 考及模拟平台。

Simulation of Water Policy for Beijing Based on CGE Model

Due to climate change, uneven distribution of precipitation and diversified geo-conditions, Beijing is facing serious water problems. Now this negative impact tendency develops increasingly fast due to population boost, rapid GDP growth and urbanization. Governments and international communities encourage solving those water crises by means of integrated river basin management and urban water system innovation. It has become a must to give a deep research of water resource economics for sustainable development and promoting social market functions. Water prices and waster water fees are two major factors in water resource economics analysis and give a great impact on national economy. Most researchers have used part equilibrium model to analyze relationship between water price, GDP growth and industry output. But in some cases, it would give unreasonable results according to some experts research. For this reason, scientists are using general equilibrium model to analyze the change of GDP and industry output affected by water resource policies. GEMPACK soft package is a wonderful calculation tool for CGE model. The paper builds 43*53-sector input-output table for water CGE model. In this paper the authors use it to simulate Beijing water resource policy. The paper researches four aspects: first, factors which affect water resource policy; second, rules of water supply and demand; third, evaluating water resource and building water resources input and output table; and fourth, establishing water CGE model and simulating water policy by GEMPACK software. The innovations also focus on such issues. The simulation gives two scenarios: (1) increase water price by 10 percent; and (2) increase water quantity by 10 percent. The results are as follows according the simulation: 1) Water resource policy affects GDP and industry output Water resource is a strategic social economical resource and it will affect industry output and commodity production. There are different behaviors in different industries as to the water policy. Agriculture has the same tendency as water price change and it is more sensitive to water quantity than to water price. So water saving technology gives more contribution to agriculture and should be given more priority. For basic energy industries such as Oil, Chemistry and Gas, they show diversity tendency: some of them would increase while others will decrease when increasing water price or quantity. As to some high water consuming industries such as Paper and Textile, water resource economic policy can affect them greatly and can promote them to accomplish more water-saving technology. Waste water and Construction and Service industries show the same tendency as water policy. 2) Government should pay more attention to water resource policy by macro economic administration The simulation also shows that the output and supply and consumer prices change more than expected as to water policy for water industry in a free market economy. So government policy makers should be more carefully to prepare suitable forecasts and plans for water policies and their negative impacts. The paper achieves simulation of water policies by using CGE model and GEMPACK software and the result will give theoretic and practical suggestions to urban water price innovation and policy decision.