全球变化对中国粮食安全的影响分析

以斯德哥尔摩环境研究所(SEI)建立的粮食需求和供应模型为基础,同时采用Ds和Shaw建立的全球变化各因子对粮食需求和供给影响的模型对其变量进行修正,结合唐国平、李秀彬的结果,模拟计算了全球变化条件下,我国未来粮食需求量和产量。在分析中发现:受全球变化的影响,在保持人民消费水平持续增长的条件下我国未来粮食生产有可能不能满足需求增长的要求,存在7～8%的粮食缺口。但是,由于全球变化的各个因素都存在很大的不确定性,而且技术进步对增加粮食产量有很大促进作用。计算结果揭示,只要采取正确的措施来尽量减少全球变化带来的不利影响,危机是可以避免的

Impacts of global change on China's food security

Resenzweig and Parry published their paper on Nature to discuss China's Food Security in 1994 American president Clinton authorized the development report the science and technology strategy to buildup the American economic security in 1996, and the problem to buildup national economic security was presented as an important national target In 1997, President Jiang Ze min presented the problem of Chinese economic security The report of Clinton especially emphasized the problem of economic security under global change Each nation will be faced with not only the change of environment and the conflict between the economic development and the exploitation of resources, but also the problem of national economic security caused by the change of environment In fact, because of the rapid development of China, just only the use of resources probably will cause the problem of economic security The paper built models to analyse the environment and economic security of China in the future 30⁵0 years The paper is based on the food demand and production model, which was established at the Stockholm Environment Institute （SEI） At the same time, we use the model established by Ds and Shaw to calculate different global change variables' influence to the food demand and supply,then use the result to calibrate the variables In our analysis, the food demand for future people was divided into two levels, and access the quantity Then we conclude that, with the influence of global change, China's future food production can't meet the need of the increasing demand It has been estimated that there maybe 7⁸%'s insufficiency Because of the uncertainty of different global change variables, and technological progresses will enhance the increase in food production, according to the result, the risk of hunger can be avoided, if only we adopt appropriate methods to decrease the affects of global change