Application of GAINS model for assessing selected air pollutants in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan,Pakistan

Pakistan is a developing country existing geographically at a pivoted location between two of the world’s largest pollution emitting countries (China and India) which adds to the severity of environmental issues faced by the country. These concerns include air pollution, climate change, and extreme weather situations prevailing in Pakistan. This increasing air pollution is deteriorating the health, threatening the food security and adding up its share to the already existing global warming. The initial step in devising a wide ranging, multifaceted, economically feasible, and sustainable solution to deal with the severity of this issue is the quantification of the air pollution and greenhouse gas emission in Pakistan. The GAINS model is one of the most comprehensive tools, dealing with the air pollutants and greenhouse gases covered by the Kyoto Protocol. This study has utilized this model to analyze the source-based anthropogenic emissions of air pollutants (NH₃ and SO₂), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and greenhouse gases (CH₄ and CO₂), their impacts and abatement cost, for the duration of 1990–2030, in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan regions of Pakistan. An overall increasing trend was observed during 1990–2030 for (a) air pollutants: NH₃ (223.52–568.87kT/Y); SO₂ (50.52–332.95kT/Y), (b) VOCs (121.76–246.81kT/Y), and (c) greenhouse gases: CO₂ (7.83–62.45MT/Y) and CH₄ (1120-2314kT/Y). The emission inventories created for all greenhouse gases together estimated the increase of 42.37 to 138.57 MTCO₂eq. for greenhouse gases over the time duration of 1990–2030.