我国台风路径突变研究进展

台风路径突变包括其移动方向和移动速度的显著变化,是当今台风路径预报的难题。突变路径预报的巨大误差常导致台风防御失败,这与其机理认识不足等原因有关。本文回顾了我国关于台风突变路径的研究成果和最新进展。从台风与多尺度环流系统相互作用、台风内部动力机制以及下垫面状况等方面,总结了关于台风路径突变的主要环境影响因子、物理过程和动热力结构特征等方面的认识,对台风路径突变的发生概率、预报技术和存在问题进行阐述,并提出关于路径突变研究需要关注的一些问题。

Advances in Research on Sudden Track Change of Typhoons in China

The sudden track change of typhoons, including its moving direction and speed, is still a difficult problem in operational typhoon track forecasting. Its great track error in operation often results in the failure of typhoon defense, which is related to the lack of understanding on its mechanisms. This paper reviews and summarizes the research achievements and latest progresses in the sudden track change of typhoons. From the points of the interaction between typhoon and multi scale systems, the inner dynamic mechanism and the situation of the underlying surface, the main environmental factors, physical processes, dynamic and thermal structural characteristics related to sudden track change of typhoons are summarized. Moreover, the probability of the sudden track change of typhoons, forecast techniques and existing problems are investigated. Some research issues about sudden track change of typhoons that need to be concerned about are discussed.