福建近海区海温数值预报试验

将在黄海和东海区建立的有限区域异常海温动力数值预报模式应用于福建近海区海温预报,根据福建近海海区特征对模式作了必要的调整.举出两个试验个例,一个在夏季(3d预报),另一个在冬季(10d预报).在夏季的试验中,恰值台风过境,所计算的流场对台风有较好的响应.冬季,预报海温场与实际海温场的变化趋势基本一致,整个海区的绝对平均误差为0.6℃.海温的变化主要决定于夹卷与抽吸作用,这与海峡的地形特征有关.

The test of numerical prediction of seawater temperature in the sea area near Fujian

A dynamic numerical prediction model of seawater temperature for limited sea area,which was built in the study of the numerical prediction of abnormal seawater temperature in the Huanghai Sea and the East China Sea,is used to test the seawater temperature prediction near Fujian sea area.Essential adjustments have been done according to the features of this region.Two examples are selects.One is in summer (3 d) and the other is in winter (10 d).In the summer test,a typhoon is just passing by and the calculated current field reflects the response of typhoon well.In the winter test,variation tendency of the prediction seawater temperature field agrees with that in reality basically.The absolute mean error in the whole sea area is 0.6℃.The variation of the seawater temperature is mostly affected by the actions of entrainment and pumping.This is related to the topography of the strait.