充填体下矿体开采安全顶板厚度数学预测模型

科学合理地确定安全顶板厚度是回采铜坑矿重叠区下92号矿体的基本依据。在分析影响92号矿体顶板稳定性因素的基础上，通过建立有限元数值模型和反复多次模拟计算得出了不同影响因素组合下顶板的安全厚度值。根据计算结果绘制了影响因子与安全顶板厚度的相关关系曲线，利用多元逐步回归分析方法建立了一能够综合反映多因素共同作用下的复杂充填体下矿体开采安全顶板厚度的数学预测模型。结合工程实际及数值模拟的验证结果表明了预测模型的有效性。

Mathematical forecasting model of safety thickness of roof for mining orebody under the complicated backfilling

A scientific and reasonable design of safety thickness of roof is the basis for stoping the orebody No.92 which under the overlap zones in Tongkeng Mine. Based on analyzing the stability factors influencing the roof of orebody No.92, the finite element model is set up; and the simulation is conducted repeatedly. Then value of safety thickness of the roof in conformity to various groups of affecting elements is worked out. According to the simulated results, the curves between every factor and safety thickness of roof are drawn. A mathematical forecasting model of safety thickness of roof under the complicated backfilling, which considers effect among most of the factors, is obtained by stepwise regression multianalysis. The results which combine engineering practice with numerical simulation validate the feasibility of the forecasting model.