| 用奇异谱分析作汛期降水的中期气候预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 国世友,邹立尧,李岩.用奇异谱分析作汛期降水的中期气候预测[J].黑龙江气象,2002(1):8-10. |
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| 作者姓名： | 国世友 邹立尧 李岩 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 黑龙江省气象中心,黑龙江,哈尔滨,150030
2. 牡丹江市气象局,黑龙江,牡丹江,157001 |
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| 基金项目： | 黑龙江省科委下达“黑龙江省中期气候预测”课题 |
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| 摘 要： | 用奇异谱分析方法对哈尔滨汛期降水进行中期气候预测。其结果表明，此方法对汛期降水趋势有较好的预测能力，并且预报效果比较稳定，经5次试报的平均准确率达76％，说明奇异谱分析模式是一种有效的中期气候预测手段，其趋势预测结果可信度高。
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| 关 键 词： | 奇异谱分析 预测 汛期降水 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-252X(2002)01-0008-03 |
Medium-term Climate Prediction of Rainy Season with Singular Spectrum Analysis |
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| GUO Shi-you ,ZOU Li-yao ,LI Yan.Medium-term Climate Prediction of Rainy Season with Singular Spectrum Analysis[J].Heilongjiang Meteorology,2002(1):8-10. |
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| Authors: | GUO Shi-you ZOU Li-yao LI Yan |
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| Institution: | GUO Shi-you 1,ZOU Li-yao 1,LI Yan 2 |
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| Abstract: | Singular Spectrum Analysis(SSA) is applied to do medium-term climate prediction experiments on rainy season precipitation of Harbin.It is indicated that the tendency forecast result of the SSA model is better,more stable and more accurate.The model gives the mean skill of 76 % when applied to 5 experiments.So,the SSA model is a very useful method for medium-term climate prediction,and the tendency forecast result is worth confidence. |
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| Keywords: | singular spectrum analysis(SSA) prediction raing season |
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