喜马拉雅地区传统贸易通道演变过程及动力机制

喜马拉雅地区传统贸易通道是突破喜马拉雅山脉天然屏障、连接中国与南亚腹地两大市场的关键,对于南亚大通道建设和跨喜马拉雅互联互通建设具有重要的战略意义。本文以喜马拉雅山脉断裂河谷为出发点,综合历史文献、实地调查及GIS技术手段,分析通道的空间分布特征、演变过程及动力机制。研究表明：① 喜马拉雅地区的传统贸易通道主要有21条,其中中尼通道6条,中不通道4条,中印通道11条,在空间上形成了“一横多纵”的空间格局。② 传统贸易通道的发展经历了萌芽期（7世纪以前）、形成期（7世纪—842年）、发展期（842—1959年）、衰落期（1959—1962年）和恢复期（1962年至今）的演变过程。③ 货物交换和佛教传播促进了通道的萌芽和形成,西藏及中原地方政权稳定和边贸政策、英国的殖民扩张和商业利益推动了通道的发展,印度的战略误判和前进政策导致了通道的衰落,中国的战略需求将推动通道的恢复和建设。④ 战略互信和边界问题是通道恢复和建设面临的主要障碍,未来需要加强对通道的多视角调查和研究,制定通道的建设和管控策略,充分发挥通道的商贸、旅游和文化交流功能,积极服务于南亚大通道建设,促进西藏边疆地区的稳定与发展。

Exploring the evolution process and driving mechanism of traditional trade routes in Himalayan region

Traditional trade routes that penetrate the natural barrier of the Himalayas are critical for connecting major Chinese and South Asian markets. Research on these trade routes can contribute significantly to facilitating the construction of the South Asia Channel and enhancing trans-Himalayan connectivity. Combining historical literature, field surveys, and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques, this study examined the spatial distribution characteristics and dynamic mechanisms driving the formation, development, decline, and restoration of the routes, focusing on transverse valleys of the Himalayan arc. The key findings were as follows. First, there are 21 traditional trade routes traversing the Himalayan region: 6 Sino-Nepalese routes, 4 Sino-Bhutanese routes, and 11 Sino-Indian routes. The routes are arranged in a "one horizontal and multiple vertical" spatial pattern. Second, the evolution of the traditional trade routes has entailed five distinct phases: an incipient period (pre-7th century), formation (7th century-842 AD), development (842-1959), decline (1959-1962) and recovery (1962-present). Third, the incipient and formative developmental phases were prompted by the spread of Buddhism and the exchange of goods. The stability of local governments in Tibet and in the Central China Plains and favorable border trade policies along with Britain's colonial expansion and commercial interests stimulated further development of traditional trade routes. However, India's strategic miscalculation and "Forward Policy" instigated the decline phase, while China's strategic needs are currently the key driver of the restoration and construction phase. Finally, a lack of strategic mutual trust and existing border issues are the main obstacles impeding the restorative and construction phases. Future efforts to support the construction of the South Asia Channel and the stability and development of border regions should focus on strengthening multi-perspectival investigations and research on traditional trade routes, formulating strategies for corridor construction and control, and emphasizing the corridor's commerce, tourism, and cultural exchange functions.