环印度洋区域国家地缘经济格局分析

环印度洋区域不仅关乎中国贸易与能源安全,同时也涵盖“一带一路”倡议合作的部分区域。为便于中国更好地开展与环印度洋区域国家之间的贸易合作,需要定量考察环印度洋区域的地缘经济格局,掌握域内外大国在该区域的地缘经济竞争情况。首先基于有序聚类方法将1992—2017年环印度洋区域国家的商品贸易数据划分为4个阶段,然后探究环印度洋区域在各阶段全球经济中的地位变化、域内地缘经济特征以及域内外大国在该区域的地缘经济竞争格局。结果发现：① 从全球地位和空间结构来看,1992—2017年环印度洋区域在全球贸易中的地位明显提升。区域贸易的空间结构呈现出由新加坡和马来西亚构成的“双核心”发展为由印度、新加坡、马来西亚、澳大利亚、泰国和阿联酋构成的“多核心”。② 从区域内部来看,域内贸易联系与依赖程度趋于加强,区域贸易一体化程度有所提升,但仍然有限。③ 从域内外大国竞争来看,美国和日本两国在环印度洋区域的地缘经济影响力均呈下滑趋势;而中国的地缘经济影响力逐步提升且已超美日;印度的地缘影响力虽然同样呈上升趋势,但仍弱于中美日;澳大利亚则长期最低。研究从全球地位变化、域内贸易联系、域内外大国竞争3个方面定量揭示了环印度洋区域地缘经济的时空格局演变。此外,研究采用的分析框架和方法也可应用于考察其他热点区域的地缘经济格局。

Spatio-temporal patterns of geo-economics of the countries in the Indian Ocean Region:Based on merchandise trade volume data from 1992 to 2017

The Indian Ocean Region (IOR) has become a crucial area for China, because it not only notably affects the country's international trade and energy security (especially oil), but also encompasses many countries under the Belt and Road Initiative. With advances of the Belt and Road regional cooperation, an important aspect is to strengthen trade and investment with a number of countries in the IOR. To facilitate China's development of better trade relations with the countries in the IOR, quantitatively investigating the trade links between the IOR and the globe and subsequently providing a better understanding of the trade competition patterns of the five major powers (i.e., the United States, Japan, China, India, and Australia) in this region are crucial. This study aimed to investigate the evolutions of the IOR's position in the global economy, spatial structures of its regional trade, and geo-economic competition patterns of the five major powers in this region from 1992 to 2017. To better identify the characteristics of these evolutions in the IOR, a sequential clustering method was employed to divide the period of 1992-2017 into four phases with the proportion data of merchandise trade volume of each country in the IOR as the basis. The results are summarized as follows. (1) The IOR's position in the global economy generally exhibited an increasing trend from 1992 to 2017, as indicated by the upward trends in the IOR's global shares of its regional trade volume, its regional eigenvector centrality, and its regional GDP. Furthermore, the spatial structures of the IOR's countries varied from "dual-core" (comprising Singapore and Malaysia) to "multi-core" (including India, the United Arab Emirates, Singapore, Malaysia, Australia, and Thailand). This was indicated by the clustering patterns of the countries based on each country's trade volume and eigenvector centrality. (2) The extent of the intra-regional trade integration of the IOR remained at a relatively low level despite that it generally showed a rising trend from 1992 to 2017. (3) The geo-economic influence of both the United States and Japan in the IOR declined from 1992 to 2017, as indicated by the downward trends in the trade dependence of the 47 countries (excluding India and Australia) in the IOR on the two countries. However, China's geo-economic influence in this region gradually increased and exceeded those of the United States and Japan in the third phase. India's geo-economic influence also showed an upward trend, but it was inferior to those of China, the United States, and Japan. Further, Australia's geo-economic influence remained the weakest in the entire period. This study quantitatively reveals the variations in the geo-economic patterns of the IOR from three aspects, i.e., its global trade position, extent of its intra-regional trade integration, and geo-economic competition patterns of the five major powers in the IOR. Moreover, the research framework and methods used in this study can also be used to investigate the geo-economic patterns of other regions (e.g., the Belt and Road region and the free trade zone of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership).