收缩型城市:认知误区、统计甄别与测算反思

收缩型城市是中国城镇化、空间规划与城市治理的全新命题。论文在简要梳理收缩型城市相关文献的基础上总结了当前收缩型城市研究在中国的认知误区。因人口统计口径不一致、划分标准不可比、数量属性与地域空间脱节等原因给科学清晰的识别收缩型城市提出了挑战。在周一星、史育龙（1995）建议的基础上,论文提出了基于实体地域对比与行政地域互验来分析全国城市人口的增减变化及收缩型城市的甄别框架,测算表明：全国有114个建制市2010年的“城人口”规模低于2000年“市人口”规模,但由于2000年“市人口”的偏大统计以及2010年“城人口”存在的“个别水分”,这些城市也未必就全是“收缩型城市”;在剔除乡村人口较高的“城市型政区”后,全国2000年和2010年人口处于净流出状态的建制市分别为56个和75个。论文认为：中国应尽快建立城市实体地域概念,推进城市化区域协同统计制度;要构建“时空对齐”的全国常住人口地理信息系统数据库并综合考虑各地行政区划建制差异,持续推进城乡人口的精准划分。

Shrinking cities:Misunderstandings,identifications and reflections

While China′s urbanization has been characterized by’growth-oriented’development models,the recent literature has highlighted the emergence of urban shrinkage in China,i.e.,cities and regions that endure sustained population losses.This is especially the case for some resource-based cities in Northeast and North China,which have been losing their population and suffering from stagnant and even negative local GDP growth.Shrinking cities is a new phenomenon for research in the areas of population-resources-environments,spatial planning and urban governance in China.Based on a brief review of related literature,this paper summarizes some misunderstandings in the research of shrinking cities in China.It is a challenge to identify shrinking cities scientifically because of different demographies,different classification standards and disconnection between attributes data and geographic units.Extending from the suggestion from Zhou and Shi(1995),this paper,based on urban physical areas comparison and urban administrative areas test,analyzes the changes of China′s urban population and proposes a framework to identify the shrinking cities.The results show that there are 114 designated cities,in which the population size of the"Chengrenkou"(residential population in the built-up area)in 2010 was smaller than that of the"Shirenkou"(residential population in the administrative area)in 2000.However,due to a larger"Shirenkou"size in 2000 in statistics than in actual situation,and also several inflated figures of"Chengrenkou"in 2010,the exact number of"shrinking cities"is less than 114.After excluding"urban administrative areas"with a larger rural population,56 cities and 75 cities were in net outflow in 2000 and 2010,respectively.The results are highly policy-relevant,therefore we should adjust future policies regarding urban shrinkage management.Finally,this paper argues that China should establish the concept of urban physical areas and promote the regional collaborative statistical system of urbanization.And it is also necessary to build a"spatiotemporal aligned"geographic information system database of China’s resident population and take the regional differences in the administrative divisions into account in order to continuously promote the accurate division of urban and rural population.