中国失踪人口的时空格局演变与形成机制

人口失踪作为一种复杂的社会问题,给家庭和社会造成了严重危害。在尊重生命与保障人权的现实背景下,对失踪人口开展深入研究具有重要意义。利用“中国儿童失踪预警平台（CCSER）”数据,综合运用文本分析、数理统计、空间分析等方法,管窥了2015—2019年中国失踪人口的基本特征、时空格局演变与形成机制。结果表明：① 失踪人口中男性多于女性,高发年龄段由高到低依次为8~16岁、2~7岁、0~1岁和60~65岁;失踪类型由高到低依次为无意识失踪、主动失踪与被动失踪,失踪亚类由高到低依次为离家出走、走失、被拐卖、身患疾病、联系中断与家庭不和。② 时间上,失踪人口总数、性别与年龄变化均呈“驼峰”状,并以2017年为轴于两侧对称分布。空间上,总体为“低—高”和“高—低”集聚,广东、浙江和四川是人口失踪的高发省份。③ 人口失踪省内流动远高于跨省流动,省内流动以广东、四川、河南和江苏为最,跨省流动以“安徽—江苏”和“广西—广东”为主要路径。④ 人口失踪可用社会网络理论中的“强弱连接理论”来解释,其主要受人与社会网络关系的强度变化的影响。

Spatio-temporal pattern evolution and formation mechanism of missing person incidents in China

The problem of missing persons brings about serious harm to their families and the society.An in-depth investigation of this issue is of great importance to protecting human lives and human rights.In this research,we collect the missing persons data during the period from2015 to 2019 from the"China’s Child Safety Emergency Response(CCSER)"platform.We use a series of techniques including text analysis,mathematical statistics,and spatial analysis to analyze the socio-demographic characteristics,evolution and formation mechanism of spatiotemporal patterns of missing persons in China.Major findings include:(1)The number of missing males is larger than that of missing females.The highest missing rate is found in people aged 8-16,followed by aged 2-7,aged 0-1,and aged 60-65.Three categories of missing persons are observed in the data,which are(in order of decreasing frequency):unconscious disappearance,active disappearance,and passive disappearance.Six sub-types of missing persons in a descending order by frequency are:running away from home,wandering away,abduction,physical or mental illness,losing track,and family dissension.(2)Hump-shaped curves are observed for temporal variations of the number,gender and age of missing persons,and the curves are symmetric about the year of 2017.The local spatial autocorrelation tests indicate that incidents of missing persons generally exhibit"low-high"and"high-low"clustering patterns.Provinces with a high incidence of missing persons are Guangdong,Zhejiang and Sichuan.(3)With respect to the spatial mobility of missing persons,intraprovincial mobility is more prevalent than inter-provincial mobility.Guangdong,Sichuan,Henan,and Jiangsu experience the highest intra-provincial mobility rate.Dominant paths of inter-provincial mobility are"Anhui-Jiangsu"route and"Guangxi-Guangdong"route.(4)The underlying mechanism of missing person incidents can be understood from the perspective of"strong and weak ties in social network".That is,the strentgth of people’s social ties can impact the occurrence of missing persons.