基于东北航线的中欧贸易研究

东北航线因其战略地位重要而日益受到世界各国的关注。本文计算出中欧港口航运经济成本及中欧国家贸易互补指数,基于东北航线构建随机前沿贸易引力模型,探究中国对欧洲18国进出口贸易的影响因素,结果发现：① 以12000 TEU运输量为对比,中欧港口基于东北航线的航运经济成本约为传统航线的1.58~2.80倍。② 2000—2018年间,基于中国出口的中欧贸易互补指数CE_ij>1的次数占52.63%,CE_ij较高的对应国家包括冰岛、丹麦、挪威、法国、瑞典和英国等国家;基于中国进口的中欧贸易互补指数CI_ij＜1的比例高达94.74%,呈下降趋势,中国进口与欧洲18国出口的互补性较差。③ 在中国向欧洲18国出口的贸易规模方面,贸易伙伴国经济规模比中国经济规模的影响更大,东北航线航运经济成本与贸易规模显著负相关;在中国向欧洲18国进口的贸易规模方面,贸易伙伴国经济规模比中国经济规模的影响更大,东北航线航运经济成本与贸易规模正相关关系的置信度较低。④ 以东北航线为中欧贸易通道,中国向欧洲18国的出口贸易效率和进口贸易效率分别呈现出不同程度的下降和上升趋势,中国对欧洲18国进出口贸易效率的提升空间较大。本文强化了东北航线与中欧航运及贸易之间关系的研究,为中国参与东北航线建设、北极资源的开发利用以及加强中欧贸易等方面提供参考。

Research of China-EU trade based on the Northern Sea Route

The Northern Sea Route has been increasingly attracting the attention from countries all over the world due to its important strategic status. By calculating the economic costs of shipping among China-EU ports through the Northern Sea Route and China-EU trade complementarity index, this study builds a trade gravity model in stochastic frontier based on the Northern Sea Route, and explores the influencing factors of China’s import from and export trade to 18 European countries, which shows the following: (1) Taking the traffic volume of 12000 TEU for comparison, the economic costs of shipping along the Northern Sea Route are 1.58-2.80 times those based on the traditional passage among China-EU ports. (2) In 2000-2018, the proportion of the China-EU trade complementarity index based on China’s export (CE_ij) greater than 1 accounted for 52.63%, and countries with higher CE_ij included Iceland, Denmark, Norway, France, Sweden and the United Kingdom, while the proportion of the China-EU trade complementarity index based on China’s import (CI_ij) less than 1 accounted for 94.74%, with a declining trend. So, China’s import and export with 18 European countries were less complementary. (3) In terms of trade scale of China’s export to 18 European countries, the economic scale of trade partner countries has a greater influence than that of China, and the economic costs of shipping are significantly negatively correlated with the trade scale based on the Northern Sea Route; in terms of trade scale of China’s import from 18 European countries, the economic scale of trade partner countries has a greater influence than that of China, and the positive correlation relationship between the economic costs of shipping and the trade scale has lower confidence based on the Northern Sea Route. (4) If the Northern Sea Route was taken for the China-EU trade, the trade efficiencies of China’s export to 18 European countries and import from them declined and rose to varying degrees, respectively, which means that the trade efficiency of China’s import and export had large room for improvement. This study can strengthen the research foundation of relationship between China-EU shipping and trade based on the Northern Sea Route, and provide references for China on participating in the construction of the Northern Sea Route, exploiting and utilizing Arctic resources, and reinforcing the trade between China and Europe.