自然禀赋与政区类型对中国县域经济发展的影响

传统研究对经济发展的影响分析多集中于社会经济指标,对“先天赋予”的自然禀赋与“后天叠加”的行政“身份特征”研究较少。在探究自然禀赋因素的同时,引入市辖区、省会、城市群以及各个交互项的行政身份虚拟变量,使用2015年夜间灯光数据表征县域经济,利用空间自相关展现中国县域经济发展格局,并通过回归分析揭示自然禀赋与政区类型对县域经济发展的影响。研究发现：① 中国县域经济存在显著的正向空间自相关特征,且县域经济统计指标表明的确存在显著的空间差异现象。② 城乡差距仍是中国区域差异的最主要特征,其中省会地区的城乡差距更为明显。③ 分区域来看,东部地区经济一体化程度高,内部差异较小,西部地区省会-非省会差异与城乡差距均高于全国平均水平,而中部地区省会区域与非省会区域的差距要大于城乡差距。④ 三种政区类型中,市辖区类型对经济促进作用最为明显,省会类型次之,城市群最弱。⑤ 通过交互项分析,城市群对中国区县经济发展的促进作用已十分明显,尤其在东部地区,不仅可提高经济发展水平,同时对于缩小城乡差距也起到一定作用,但在中西部地区作用较弱。⑥ 自然禀赋对中国经济发展起到一定作用,坡度大于15°面积比例过大以及平均海拔过高是制约经济发展的不利因素。⑦ 通过对自然禀赋和政区类型交互项的分析,城市群战略的实施可以缩小由地形地貌所造成的县域经济差距。

The influence of natural endowment and political district type on the economic development of Chinese counties

The influence analysis of traditional research on economic development is mainly focused on social and economic indicators, and there is less research on the natural endowment of "innate" and the administrative "identity characteristics" of "the superimposing of the after-day". To explore the factors of natural endowment, we introduce the virtual variables of administrative identity of municipal districts, provincial capitals, urban groups and various interactive items. Based on the 2015 Chinese light data characterizing the county economy, we use spatial correlation and regression analysis to present the economic development pattern of China's counties, so as to reveal the influence of natural endowments and political district types on the economic development. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows: (1) China's county economy has significant positive spatial self-correlation, and the larger spatial positive correlation indicates that there is indeed spatial differences. (2) The gap between urban and rural areas is still the most important feature of China's regional differences, of which the gap between urban and rural areas in the provincial capitals is more obvious. (3) Subregionally, the economic integration in the eastern region is high, and the internal differences are small, and the differences between the provincial capitals of the western region and the gap between urban and rural areas are higher than the national average, while the gap between the capital cities of the central region and the non-provincial capitals is greater than that between urban and rural areas. (4) Among the three types of political districts, the type of municipal district plays the most important role in promoting the economy, followed by the type of provincial capital, and the weakest is urban agglomeration. (5) Through interactive analysis, the role of urban agglomerations in promoting economic development in China's districts and counties has been very obvious, especially in the eastern region, not only to raise the level of economic development, but also to narrow the gap between urban and rural areas. However, the urban agglomerations play a weak role in the central and western regions. (6) Natural endowment plays a role in China's economic development, and the ratio of slope to 15 degrees area and average elevation are the disadvantages restricting economic development. (7) The above analysis reveals that the implementation of urban agglomeration strategy can narrow the economic gap of county region caused by topography and landform.