多情景模拟下粤港澳大湾区生态系统服务评估与权衡研究

城镇化快速发展导致区域的生态系统服务衰减,威胁城市的生态安全;掌握城市群地区生态系统服务权衡/协同关系量化,对提升生态系统服务总体效益和维护区域生态安全至关重要。以粤港澳大湾区为研究区域,利用InVEST模型对粤港澳大湾区1995—2018年间产水服务、固碳服务、土壤保持服务、食物供给服务共4项生态系统服务进行评估,设定历史趋势情景、规划情景和生态保护情景,借助GeoSOS-FLUS模型进行2030年生态系统服务情景分析,探讨各种生态系统服务之间的权衡/协同关系。结果表明：① 1995—2018年间,粤港澳大湾区产水服务出现增加趋势,固碳服务、土壤保持服务和食物供给服务出现下降趋势。② 不同类型生态系统服务变化存在明显的区域异质性,产水服务高值区域其值增大,低值区域其值减小;固碳服务低值区域,其值下降更大;除香港外,土壤保持量减小的区域呈零星状分布;食物供给高值及减小的最大值位于东莞、佛山、中山和深圳等中部区域。③ 产水服务在规划情景下达到最佳,固碳服务和土壤保持服务在生态保护情景下最佳,历史趋势情景下食物供给服务最佳,生态系统服务综合效益在生态保护情景下达到最佳。④ 历史趋势情景下生态系统服务之间的权衡程度最大,生态保护情景下各项生态系统服务之间的协同程度较高。基于生态耦合模型进行粤港澳大湾区生态系统服务估算,揭示生态系统服务权衡或协同的变化关系及作用机理,可为区域生态系统服务管理和社会经济发展规划提供参考。

Evaluation and trade-offs of ecosystem services in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area under multi-scenario simulation

The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is facing the challenge of the increasingly serious lack of ecosystem services, which greatly hinders the implementation of the national construction strategy and the sustainable economic development of the Greater Bay Area. It is critical to understand the quantification of ecosystem services trade-offs / synergies relationships in urban agglomeration so as to enhance the overall effectiveness of ecosystem services and maintenance. Two models are introduced in this paper. Firstly, a future land-use simulation （GeoSOS-FLUS） model was employed for a 12-year （up to 2030） land-use distribution under three scenarios, namely, history trend, planning and ecological protection, respectively. Secondly, 4 ecosystem services from 1995 to 2030, which are water service, the carbon sequestration, soil conservation, and food supply, are evaluated by using InVEST model in the study area. Then, trade-off or collaborative relationship between each pair of ecosystem service types are explored and discussed. The results are as follows. （1） The water service increased from 1995 to 2008 while the carbon sequestration, soil conservation and food supply decreased. （2） Each ecological service exhibits an obvious spatiotemporal heterogeneity, in which the water services of areas with high value increase while areas with low value decrease; the carbon sequestration drops greater in lower value area than in the other. Except Hong-Kong, soil conservation of other areas have showed a decreasing trend, which are found sporadically in the entire area; the high and reduced food supply are distributed in central regions such as Dongguan, Foshan, Zhongshan and Shenzhen. （3） Optimal status can be reached for the four ecosystem services, namely, water service under planning scenario, carbon sequestration and soil conservation under ecological protection scenario, food supply under history trend scenario, and comprehensive benefit of ecosystem service under ecological protection scenario. （4） The maximized trade-off relationship between ecosystem services are observed under history trend scenario and the maximized synergies relationship under ecological protection scenario, which witnessed has a stable development trend in 1995-2018. In summary, the estimation of ecosystem service of the Greater Bay Area and explanation to the mechanism of the synergistic effects of the ecosystem service with the ecological coupling models can bring to light the relationship and mechanism among different ecosystem services, and further provide reference for regional ecosystem service management and socio-economic development plan.