新疆克里雅河源流区径流变化与气候因子关系的非线性分析

利用克里雅河源流区兰干站1957～2009年的年径流量、气温和降水量实测数据,借助小波分析和R/S分析等方法探讨了径流量、气温和降水量的变化趋势及多时间尺度相关性。结果表明:(1)年径流量与气温和降水量存在明显的正相关关系并皆呈增加趋势,结合R/S分析,这种增加趋势在未来的50a仍将可能持续。(2)研究区年径流量、气温和降水量均存在9年的年际变化周期,而在年代际上由于气温和降水量周期性不同致使径流量的周期为15年。另外,三者在未来的20年存在不同的周期性突变。(3)克里雅河源流区径流量与气温和降水量存在显著的非线性相关关系。年径流量的变化是气温和降水量综合作用的结果。

Nonlinear analysis of runoff change and climate factors in the headstream of Keriya River, Xinjiang

Based on the data observed of the temperature,precipitation and annual runoff at the Langan Hydrological Station of the Keriya River from 1957 to 2009,the paper studied the change trend and multi-time scale correlation between the annual runoff and climatic factors by using methods of wavelet analysis and R/S analysis.The results are shown as follows.(1) There is a positive correlation among the annual runoff,temperature and precipitation,which have the significant increasing trends;with R/S analysis,these increasing trends are likely to continue in the coming 50 years.(2) The interannual variations of runoff,temperature and precipitation present a cycle of 9 years,and the decadal variations of annual runoff have a 15-year cycle owing to different periods of temperature and precipitation.Besides,there would be different abrupt changes of the runoff,temperature and precipitation in the coming 20 years.(3) There are significant nonlinear correlations among the annual runoff,temperature and precipitation in the headstream of Keriya River.In addition,annual runoff change is due to the combined effects of temperature and precipitation.