气候变暖背景下中原腹地冬小麦气候适宜度变化

通过构建冬小麦光照、温度、降水及综合气候适宜度计算模型,探讨气候变化对冬小麦气候适宜性的影响。结果表明:冬小麦全生育期温度、光照、降水及综合气候适宜度均值分别为0.54、0.64、0.37及0.50;冬小麦对光照适宜性较好,降水是限制冬小麦生长发育的主要因子;温度和降水适宜度以0.001·a^-1线性趋势下降,光照适宜度以0.002·a^-1线性趋势下降,气候因子匹配效果变差对冬小麦的生长不利。冬前生长阶段温度、光照和降水适宜性较弱,各气候因子匹配效果较差。出苗-拔节期降水适宜性较强,各气候因子组合效果较差;拔节-抽穗期和抽穗-乳熟期温度与光照适宜性较强,水分胁迫较大,气候因子组合效果趋好。乳熟-成熟期光照和降水适宜性较强,综合气候适宜性变差。光照、温度和降水适宜度在全生育期的中后期与冬小麦产量的相关性比较显著。

Variation of climate suitability of winter wheat in Central Plains under the condition of climate warming

Global climate change has significant impacts on agricultural production.Climate variability adversely impacts crop production and imposes a key constraint on agricultural production,mostly on how to enhance the yields of winter wheat,across the world.Owing to the fundamental importance of food to human welfare,crop and livestock production,we used the data of winter wheat experimental field and meteorological data of eight agrometeorological experiment stations and agrometeorological observation stations from 1991 to 2010 to establish the models of climate suitability.The variation of climate suitability in the whole growth period from 1971 to 2010 was analyzed.The results showed that the suitability degrees of temperature,sunshine,precipitation and integrated index were 0.54,0.64,0.37 and 0.50 respectively during the whole growth period of winter wheat.The sunshine suitability degree was the best,temperature suitability degree took the second place and the precipitation suitability degree was the worst.It is indicated that precipitation is the major limiting factor affecting winter wheat growth and development.It was shown that the temperature and precipitation suitability degrees decreased by 0.001 every year and sunshine suitability degree decreased by 0.002 every year from 1971 to 2010.The weaken combination effects of temperature,sunshine and precipitation were unfavorable for the growth of winter wheat.The temperature,sunshine and precipitation suitability degrees were weaker and these factors had poor combination effects in sowing to emergence period from 1971 to 2010.The precipitation suitability degree was good,sunshine and temperature suitability degrees were weaker in emergence to jointing period of winter wheat.In jointing to milk period of winter wheat,temperature and sunshine suitability degrees were good,and precipitation suitability degree was weak;and the combination of climate factors tended to be better.The sunshine and precipitation suitability degrees were good,temperature suitability degree was weaker in milk to maturity period of winter wheat;and the integrated climate suitability degree began to deteriorate.Per unit yield of winter wheat had a significant correlation with sunshine,temperature and precipitation suitability degrees in the middle-late growth period of winter wheat.