居民家庭日常出行碳排放的发生机制与调控策略——以北京市为例

根据2007年北京市居民活动日志调查数据,利用Amos7.0软件建立单效标因素的路径分析模型,试图在"社区-家庭"层面上挖掘"空间利用-出行特征-碳排放"的内在发生机理,藉此寻找城市空间组织低碳化的调控路径。研究发现:影响居民家庭日常出行碳排放的主要因素是出行距离和出行方式。社区空间利用特征对家庭出行的距离总量有显著影响,对小汽车出行比率则没有明显作用效果;私家车的购置对居民家庭出行行为的高碳化具有不可逆的作用特点;在现有设施条件、空间环境和车辆使用政策下,公共交通对私人交通出行没有替代性。研究认为,城市空间组织和调控优化应通过土地混合利用、设施供给等物质空间组织与再组织手段,形成空间行为组织和行为规划策略,引导居民降低交通发生量,优化居民交通发生的时空结构,建构低碳的城市空间结构。

Low-carbon optimization strategies based on CO2 emission mechanism of household daily travels:A case study of Beijing

Using the household travel survey data(2007) in Beijing obtained by behaviour geography research team in PKU,we build one single-indicator path analysis model with the AMOS7.0 software to examine the inner mechanism between land use,travel characteristics and CO₂ emissions at the neighborhood-family levels.Our purpose is to find what factors and how extent these factors influence household CO₂ emitted during daily travels.We believe it can give us a better understanding of the optimization paths and strategies towards low-carbon urban spatial structure,as well as most urgent tasks in our increasingly warming global environment from the perspective of geography and urban planning.Empirical result indicates that total travel distance and trip mode choice are the primary factors which influence the GHG emissions in household daily travels.The spatial land-use features in neighborhood level have remarkable impact on the total distance,while there is no significant effect on the mode probability using private cars.Providing auto purchased,carbon emissions have a dramatic increase regarding to high-carbonization,with the process irreversible.And then,under previous circumstance,no significant evidences imply trade-off effect exists between the public and private transportation department.We conclude,strategies such as mixed land use and facilities provision should be put into operation to reduce the travel occurrence quantities and enhance the spatiotemporal distribution of daily travels,and to keep consistency with transportation demand management.At the same time,aimed green low-carbon city,the emphases of urban organizations and plan should be shifted from urban physical elements to spatial behavior,coupled with spatial behaviour rescheduling and personal behaviour plan.