|
|||||
|
|
| 全球气候变化对中国未来地表径流的影响 | |
| 引用本文： | 游松财,Yuzuru Matsuoka.全球气候变化对中国未来地表径流的影响[J].第四纪研究,2002,22(2):148-157. |
| 作者姓名： | 游松财 Yuzuru Matsuoka |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101;Department of Social Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo 152-8550, Japan 2. Social and Environmental Systems Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki 305 - 8506, Japan 3. Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto 606 - 01, Japan |
| 基金项目： | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所知识创新工程领域前沿项目 (批准号 :CXIOG -A4 0 0 -0 4 -0 1 )，中国科学院 知识创新重大项目 (批准号 :KZCX1 -SW -0 1 -1 8) |
| 摘 要： | 本文应用改进的水分平衡模型研究了不同气候变化情景下中国未来地表径流的变化。结果表明:基于不同的气候变化情景模拟所得的地表径流变化在空间上有差异,总体上,中国未来的地表径流将增加;长江上游地区的地表径流春季下降但在夏季增加,而下游地区的则相反,夏季径流下降而春季径流剧增;气溶胶对地表径流变化方面有影响,但在各个气候变化情景下缺乏一致性。 |
| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 地表径流 水分平衡模型 |
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON SURFACE RUNOFF IN CHINA |
|
| Institution: | 1. Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101; 2. Department of Social Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo 152-8550, Japan; 3. Social and Environmental Systems Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan; 4. Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto 606-01, Japan |
| Abstract: | This paper used a macro-scale hydrological model to simulate streamflow across China at a spatial resolution of 0.5×0.5 degree longitude/latitude and temporal resolution of one month, under the 1961～1990 baseline climate and scenarios derived from ECHAM4, HadCM2, CGCM1, CSIRO-Mk2b, and CCSR/NIES. The mean surface runoff change in 2090～2099 under different climate scenarios, in general, will increase across China. The change pattern along Changjiang River is a little bit complicated. The upper reaches of Changjiang River will experience a decrease of surface runoff in spring and an increase in summer season, whereas the lower reaches with summer decrease and spring increase. There exists some spatial differences in surface runoff change among different climate scenarios. Aerosols do affect surface runoff, but the effects are inconsistent among the different GCMs. |
| Keywords: | climate change surface runoff water balance model |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |
| 点击此处可从《第四纪研究》浏览原始摘要信息 | |
| 点击此处可从《第四纪研究》下载免费的PDF全文 | |