基于AHP法的鲁中某高铁岩溶塌陷易发性评价

鲁中地区隐伏岩溶广泛分布，多年来岩溶塌陷灾害频发，给区内高速铁路的勘察、施工与运营管理带来了较多困难。本文以泰安东地区某拟建高速铁路为研究对象，在对线路穿越段地质构造、水文地质条件、岩溶塌陷发育现状总结分析的基础上，选取了8项岩溶塌陷影响因子作为评价指标，并运用AHP法计算了各评价指标的权重，构建了有针对性的评价指标体系，结合GIS空间分析方法进行了岩溶塌陷易发性评价。结果表明：研究区易发性高区面积约11.0km2，占比37.6%，易发性中等区面积约9.6km2，占比32.9%，易发性低区面积约7.8km2，占比26.8%，需在高速铁路建设过程中有针对性地采取进一步的防治工程措施。本研究成果可为高铁线路方案的确定及工程处理提供地质依据，也可为同类覆盖型岩溶区高速铁路工程的规划建设与防灾减灾管理提供参考。

Karst Collapse Risks Evaluation of a Highspeed Railway in Central Shandong Based on AHP Method

Hidden karst is widely distributed in central Shandong province, and karst collapse disasters have occurred frequently for many years. It has brought more difficulties to the survey, construction and operation management of highspeed railway in the region. Based on the summary and analysis of geological structure, hydrogeological conditions and karst collapse development status of the crossing section of the line, taking a proposed highspeed railway in eastern Tai''an area as the research object, selecting eight karst collapse impact factors as evaluation indicators, the weight of each evaluation indicator has been calculated by using AHP method, a targeted evaluation indicator system has been constructd, and the vulnerability of karst collapse has been evaluated by using GIS spatial analysis method. It is showed that the area of high vulnerability area is about 11.0km2, accounting for 37.6%, the area of medium vulnerability area is about 9.6km2, accounting for 32.9%, and the area of low vulnerability area is about 7.8km2, accounting for 26.8%. It is necessary to take further prevention and control measures in the process of highspeed railway construction. It can provide geological basis for the determination of highspeed railway line scheme and engineering treatment, as well as references for the planning, construction and disaster prevention and mitigation management of highspeed railway projects in similar covered karst areas.