| 陇东黄土高原春末夏初旱的气候特征及预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 王位泰. 陇东黄土高原春末夏初旱的气候特征及预测模型[J]. 气象, 2003, 29(9): 34-36 |
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| 作者姓名： | 王位泰 |
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| 作者单位： | 甘肃省庆阳地区气象局,西峰,745000 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家“九五”重点项目“我国短期气候预测系统研究”资助 ,课题编号 :96 90 8 0 5 0 3 |
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| 摘 要： | 应用自然正交函数分解(EOF)方法,分析了甘肃省庆阳地区春末夏初干旱的综合评价指数DH的空间分布特征及随时间演变规律;分析了春末夏初干旱对冬小麦和玉米产量的影响;应用逐步回归方法建立了春末夏初干旱的预测模型,业务使用效果良好。
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| 关 键 词： | 干旱 气候特征 预测模型 |
Climatic Characteristics of Drought and Its Forecast Model in Late Spring and Early Summer in the Eastern Gansu Province |
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| Wang Weitai. Climatic Characteristics of Drought and Its Forecast Model in Late Spring and Early Summer in the Eastern Gansu Province[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2003, 29(9): 34-36 |
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| Authors: | Wang Weitai |
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| Abstract: | The temporal-spatial distribution of drought index D H in late spring and early summer in the eastern Gansu Province is analyzed by EOF. The effect of drought on output of winter wheat and corn is also analyzed. Finally, a forecast model of drought index is developed with stepwise regression and it has better forecast results. |
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| Keywords: | drought index climate characteristic forecast model |
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