龙川县气温预报方法的建立与应用

利用龙川站2008-2012年地面观测资料、欧洲中心数值预报产品,采用常规统计预报方法（逐步回归）,将最高（低）气温实况作为预报对象,把可能影响气温变化的气象要素作为预报因子,分月建立未来24～ 72 h最高（低）气温的MOS预报方程,通过对2013年全年的检验预报表明：未来24～72 h最高（低）气温预报平均绝对误差均在2.0℃以内.

Design and Application of Methods of Forecasting Air Temperature in Longchuan County

Based on the surface observations from a meteorological observation station in Longchuan County and forecast products from the European Center for Medium-range Forecast from 2008 to 2012, this study uses the conventional statistical forecasting method of stepwise regression to set up a MOS forecast model. Setting the maximum and minimum air temperature as the objects of forecast and the meteorological elements as the predictors that may affect the change of air temperature, the model forecasts the maximum and minimum temperature for 24 to 72 hours to come. As shown in a verification of the forecasts for the entire year of 2013, these forecasts are all within 2. 0 ℃ in terms of mean absolute error.