| 首都圈地区地震时间序列的最大熵谱分析方法及地震危险性预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 贾炯,刁桂苓,平建军,张瑞芳,王梅德,郭学增,于仁宝. 首都圈地区地震时间序列的最大熵谱分析方法及地震危险性预测[J]. 华北地震科学, 2008, 26(2): 7-11 |
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| 作者姓名： | 贾炯 刁桂苓 平建军 张瑞芳 王梅德 郭学增 于仁宝 |
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| 作者单位： | 河北省地震局黄壁庄地震台,河北,黄壁庄,050024;吉林大学地球探测科学与技术学院,吉林,长春,130026;河北省地震局,河北,石家庄,050021;河北体育学院,河北,石家庄,050021;河南许昌市地震局,河南,许昌,461000;河北省地震局兴济地震台,河北,兴济,061021 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用最大熵谱分析方法和最大熵原理方法，对首都圈（北纬38°～42°，东经113°～120°）1484年以来发生5．0级以上地震的时间序列资料进行了分析，结果表明，首都圈地区历史上5．0级以上地震存在12．9年的卓越周期，并且在今后50年内，发生5．0≤Ms〈6．0和6．0≤Ms〈7．0地震的概率分别是0．9907和0．6916，发生7．0≤Ms〈8．0地震的概率较低，只有0．2564发生Ms≥8．0地震的概率最低。仅为0．0718。
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| 关 键 词： | 首都圈 最大熵谱分析方法 最大熵原理 地震预测 |
Maximum entropy spectrum analysis to the seismic time series and seismic risk prediction in Capital Area |
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| JIA Jiong,DIAO Gui-ling,PING Jian-jun,ZHANG Rui-fang,WANG Mei-de,GUO Xue-zeng,YU Ren-bao. Maximum entropy spectrum analysis to the seismic time series and seismic risk prediction in Capital Area[J]. North China Earthquake Sciences, 2008, 26(2): 7-11 |
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| Authors: | JIA Jiong DIAO Gui-ling PING Jian-jun ZHANG Rui-fang WANG Mei-de GUO Xue-zeng YU Ren-bao |
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| Affiliation: | JIA Jiong, DIAO Gui-ling, PING Jian-jun, ZHANG Rui-fang, WANG Mei-de, GUO Xue-zeng, YU Ren-bao (1. Huangbizhuang Seismostation, Huangbizhuang 050024, Hebei Province, China; 2. College of Geoexploration Science and Technology, Jilin University, Changchun 130026, Jilin Province, China; 3. Earthquake Administration of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang 50021, China; 4. Sports Institute of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang 050024, China; 5. Earthquake Administration of Xuchang, Xuchang 461000, Henan Province, China; 6. Xingji Seismostation, Xingji 061021, Hebei Province, China) |
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| Abstract: | The time series data of over M5.0 earthquakes since 1484 in Capital area are analyzed with maximum entropy spectrum analysis and maximum entropy principle method. The results show that there is a 12.9 years predominant cycle in the series. The probability for 5.0≤Ms〈 6.0 and 6.0≤Ms〈 7.0 earthquake in the next 50 years is 0. 9907 and 0. 6916 respectively. The probability for 7.0≤Ms〈 8.0 earthquake is relatively lower, just 0. 2564. The probability for Ms≥8.0 earthquake is the lowest, merely 0. 0718. |
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| Keywords: | Capital Area methods of maximum entropy spectrum analysis the maximum entropy principle earthquake prediction |
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